I’ll say one more thing about the Federal Reserve: When geopolitics are driving a major source of inflation, how can anyone have a clear crystal ball? Meanwhile, I thought there were some interesting comments on housing from the home builder Lennar Corp. (LEN) last week, notes Peter Boockvar, editor of The Boock Report.
Market pricing for future rate moves can change any minute, any day, any week. I can almost guarantee that if the Strait of Hormuz was fully reopened tomorrow upon some deal, oil fell back into the $80s, and product prices dropped, too, the Fed would not be hiking rates again this year.
(Editor’s Note: Peter is speaking at the 2026 MoneyShow/TradersEXPO Orlando, scheduled for Oct. 5-7. Click HERE to register.)
This is why when someone asks me: “Do you think the Fed will hike rates again by year end?” my answer is: “I don’t know, but either way, the bond market gets to respond to the news each and every day in setting rates and the Fed is just a follower now.” I think Kevin Warsh – with his desire not to give forward guidance and asking the market to do more of the work – would agree.
Lennar Corp. (LEN)
As for Lennar, it said: “The resale seller has become a more aggressive competitor for a customer, especially at our price range. Resale supply has continued to rebuild and is now very competitive in price.
“Active listings nationally are back above their historic levels. In Texas and Florida, they are particularly high. When a resale seller cuts price, they’re competing directly for our customer, and we respond, which is a meaningful part of the incentive and pricing dynamic you see in our South Central and Southeast markets.”
While this is not good for homeowners and the prices of their homes, maybe it could offset the higher mortgage rates in terms of affordability for the first-time buyer.
