Don't Expect a Catastrophic Correction
04/09/2012 7:15 am EST
You should expect a tough week now and again, given the big move in stocks since the beginning of the year, and some commodities are getting very close to bargain buys, write Pam and Mary Anne Aden of The Aden Forecast.
Volatility is back, and it's affecting most of the markets. This time it was Spain, which is again fueling Eurozone uncertainty. The Fed is adding to this by flip-flopping on whether or not more monetary stimulus is coming.
Gold and the metals sector were hit the hardest this week. Gold broke clearly below its $1,650 support as its B decline gains momentum. Gold remains bullish, despite this decline. It's now rapidly approaching its super-strong support level at $1,600 and it'll likely hold near that area.
Our recommended shares and ETFs are under pressure, but they're generally holding up OK. They also appear to be near a bottom. Their momentum indicators are rising, and these tend to lead the price action.
We recommend keeping your metals and metals-related shares. Even though the markets have been nerve-wracking, all indications are suggesting the downside is limited.
Silver also broke below its $32 support, and it could now fall to near $30. Below $30, it would be a real bargain. The same is true of oil: it broke support, but it'll stay bullish above $96.30. Meanwhile, copper is holding firm, which is a good sign.
Contrary to what you may hear, the stock market decline last week was not a big deal. In fact, it's been mild, especially compared to this year's strong rise.
Currently, for instance, the Dow Industrials and Nasdaq remain super strong above 13,070 and 3,030, respectively. But even if they decline in a downward correction, which would be normal at this point, they'll stay very strong above 12,800 and 2,875.
Interest rates have been one of the calmer markets. The major trend remains up bond prices, so continue holding your positions. For now, watch the 3.48% and 3.27% levels on the 30-year yield—whichever way it breaks will determine the next short-term direction.
As you'd expect, the currencies were affected by the uncertainty. Most of them declined, especially the euro, but even the non-euro currencies came under downward pressure too.
On the other hand, the US dollar is firm, and it'll stay firm above 79.50. Keep your cash in US dollars. The Canadian dollar is also holding its own, and it's OK for the time being, but we're watching it closely.