Markets have spent a few days clawing their way back from Monday’s swoon, to the point that the S&P 500 closed yesterday only about 30 points below last Friday’s close. We’re giving back a bit of ground in the early going today, though. Treasuries are up slightly, while gold, silver, and crude oil are flattish along with the dollar.
S&P 500 (1-Week Chart)
Source: Yahoo Finance
Will the Federal Reserve cut interest rates before its Sept. 17-18 meeting rolls around? Will it cut by 50 basis points then, versus the previously expected 25? A lot of Fed questions are swirling around in markets after this week’s volatility and last week’s lousy jobs data.
But as of this writing, an intermeeting cut seems unlikely. A 50 bp reduction is more realistic, but not a lock, either. Fed officials will have an opportunity to guide markets at the Kansas City Fed’s annual Jackson Hole, Wyoming Symposium. It’s scheduled for Aug. 22-24. Past events have featured several market-moving speeches and media interviews.
As for the economy, we’re seeing more and more stories trying to answer the “soft landing or hard landing” question. This is one from the Wall Street Journal today. It leads with the story of a Minnesota family that’s cutting back on the scope of its Disney theme park trip – and notes that The Walt Disney Co. (DIS) itself warned that “economic uncertainty” hurt its park business in the most recent quarter.
You can still put me in the soft landing/”Be Bold” camp, a message I shared onstage at the MoneyShow Masters Symposium Las Vegas last week. But I’m watching the data, news, and markets for signs of a shift, too.
