Stocks continue to weaken on war fears. Crude oil is giving up a bit of ground, though, while gold and silver are bouncing after selling off aggressively in the past week. Treasuries are losing more ground, while Bitcoin is hovering just above $70,000.
How high could oil prices climb? Saudi Arabian experts are reportedly expecting $180 a barrel as their base case – IF the conflict persists into late April. Some Persian Gulf price benchmarks are already well above the broadly followed WTI and Brent futures market prices widely quoted in the press, according to the Wall Street Journal. For its part, the United States Oil Fund (USO) is now up 69.6% year-to-date.
USO, UL, MKC, SMCI (YTD % Change)
Data by YCharts
The premium Gulf prices reflect a global scramble for oil – particularly in Asia – with the Strait of Hormuz still effectively blocked. US forces are now using helicopters and low-flying airplanes to strike more targets in Iran. Their focus is boats, missile sites, and other assets Iran would use to threaten shipping lanes. Meanwhile, Axios reported that President Trump is mulling some kind of operation against Kharg Island, which houses Iran’s main oil-exporting facilities.
Will we soon get a big deal in Big Food? Unilever Plc (UL) is reportedly looking to offload its food business, which is valued at around $33 billion. One potential buyer is McCormick & Co. (MKC), according to Bloomberg. It would be the biggest deal ever for the spice and seasonings company if it comes to fruition. Unilever wants to focus on beauty and household products moving forward. It has already sold off units that make tea and snacks.
Finally, shares of Super Micro Computer Inc. (SMCI) are tanking after the Justice Department charged company officials with smuggling AI tech to China. The firm’s co-founder, Taiwan sales manager, and a contractor were accused of helping steer $2.5 billion in US tech to the country.
The US clamped down on exports in 2022 to keep China’s military from gaining access to advanced semiconductors. SMCI itself was not named as a defendant in the complaint, and the firm said it was cooperating with investigators. Super Micro stock was recently down 25% on the news.
