If the S&P 500 (SPY) is able get and hold above $268.17 (~2,685 S&P 500 Index) odds would suggest a bounce up towards 2,785-2,767 (200-day average) that we can partake in, says Ziad Jasani Monday from Toronto in commentary and video.
View my weekly strategy session video here.
Recorded: Oct. 29, 2018.
Duration: 1:22:31.
However, if the S&P 500 remains below 2,656 a test of 2,604-2,575 (-2% to -3%) closing posture last week suggested we are still in a bottoming process and expecting a bounce vs. the “bottom falling out again,” odd remain in the 70% range for a bounce this week.
In the scenario we’re bouncing Hold-To-Buy-Lines are provided at a sector level below; if the bounce doesn’t materialize, Sell-Lines have been provided.
If we get a “buy-able bounce” key Sectors to focus on are: Technology, Materials, Miners, Energy, Bio-Tech, Discretionaries, REITs and Small Caps (IWM).
If we stay below 2,685 and especially 2,656 to start the week we are open to playing Short/Inverse (SH, SDS, DOG, DXD, PSQ, SQQQ) with expectations for the S&P 500 to find support between 2,604-2,575 (-2% to -3% away).
Sector Weights and Detail
• Materials (XLB, GDX, SIL, XME) o XLB: Hold > $50.23 | Hold-To-Buy $51.48| Sell-Line: $50.23 o XME: Hold-To-Buy > $30.18 | Sell-Line: $29.68 o GDX: Hold-To-Buy > $18.96| Sell-Line: $18.59 o SIL: Hold-To-Buy > $23.84 | Sell-Line: $23.84 & $23.26
• Industrials (XLI, DIA) o XLI: Hold > $67.91 | Hold-To-Buy > $68.63 | Sell-Line: $67.91 o DIA: Hold > $243.59 | Hold-To-Buy > $247.42 | Sell-Line: $243.59
• Staples (XLP) o XLP: Hold > $53.13 | Hold-To-Buy > $54.14| Sell-Line: $53.13
• Financials (XLF, KBE, KRE, KIE) o XLF: Hold > $24.81 | Hold-To-Buy > $25.46 | Sell-Line: $24.81 o KBE: Hold > $40.31 | Hold-To-Buy > $44.50| Sell-Line: $43.13 o KRE: Hold > $54.56 | Hold-To-Buy > $41.68| Sell-Line: $40.31 o KIE: Hold > $28.87 | Hold-To-Buy > $29.49 | Sell-Line: $28.87
• Healthcare (XLV, XBI, IBB, XPH, XHE) o XLV: Hold > $87.40 | | Hold-To-Buy > $ 87.77 | Sell-Line: $86.76 o XPH: Hold > $42.05 | Hold-To-Buy > $43.53 |Sell-Line: $42.05 o XBI: Hold > $79.63 |Hold-To-Buy > $79.63 & $83.97| Sell-Line: $79.63 o XHE: Hold > $75.75 | Hold-To-Buy > $77.35 | Sell-Line: $74.30 o IBB: Hold > $100.22 | Hold-To-Buy > $104.85 | Sell-Line: $100.22
• Discretionaries (XLY, XHB, XRT) o XLY: Hold > $103.01 | Hold-To-Buy > $106.11| Sell-Line: $103.01 o XHB: Hold > $33.15 | Hold-To-Buy > $34.00 | Sell-Line: $33.15 o XRT: Hold > $45.81 | Hold-To-Buy > $47.49 | Sell-Line: $45.81 & $44.86
• REITs (XLRE, VNQ) o VNQ: Hold-To-Buy > $77.43 | Sell-Line: $75.57 o XLRE: Hold-To-Buy > $31.64 | Sell-Line: $31.64
• Utilities (XLU) o XLU: Hold > $53.29 | Hold-To-Buy > $53.91| Sell-Line: < $53.29
• Technology (QQQ, XLK, IYW, FNG) o QQQ: Hold > $164.37 | Hold-To-Buy > $167.30 | Sell-Line: $164.37 o XLK: Hold > $66.82 | Hold-To-Buy > $68.62 | Sell: $66.82 o IYW: Hold > $171.30 | Hold-To-Buy > $176.20 | Sell: $171.30 o FNG: Hold > $18.12 | Hold-To-Buy > $18.80| Sell: $18.12
• Energy (XLE, XOP, RYE, XES) o XLE: Hold-To-Buy >$66.56 | Sell-Line: $66.56 & $64.67 o XOP: Hold > $35.07 | Hold-To-Buy > $36.96 | Sell-Line: $35.07 o RYE: Hold > $52.28 | Hold-To-Buy > $53.60 | Sell-Line: $52.28 & $51.25 o XES: Hold > $13.35 | Hold-To-Buy > $14.28 | Sell-Line: $13.35
• Telecom (IYZ) o IYZ: Hold > $26.90 |Hold-To-Buy $27.28 | Sell-Line $26.90.
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