View from Toronto: Triple Bottom or the Bottom Falls Out of TSX?

12/13/2018 2:16 pm EST

Focus: MARKETS

Ziad Jasani

Managing Director and Partner, Independent Investor Institute

If the TSX can hold > 14,655 and bounce back > 14,926, a higher probability of a move to re-test the 50-day average (15,284) initiates wherein the index, Financials, Energy, Industrials, Tech & Cannabis would be playable for a swing-low trade, says Ziad Jasani Monday.

video

View my weekly strategy session video here.
Recorded: Dec. 10, 2018.
Duration: 1:37:07.

However, if the TSX breaks 14,655 and remains below, longer-term investors would be raising cash, while short-term traders would use inverse ETFs to capitalize on the downside (HXD-T).
The configuration of a bullish scenario would likely include a steeper yield curve, out-performance from Financials, weaker bonds (XBB-T), under-performance from defensive equity sectors, a breakout on Oil and Energy Equities leading, as Precious Metal Miners and Gold fade.

• TSX Index (XIC-T, XIU-T, EWC, EWC v ACWI)
• XIC-T: Hold > $23.26| Hold-To-Buy > $23.71| Sell-Line $23.26
• XIU-T: Hold > $21.97 | Hold-To-Buy > $22.39 | Sell-Line $21.97
• EWC: Hold > $25.56| Hold-To-Buy > $25.99 | Sell-Line $25.56

• Financials (XFN-T, ZEB-T, ZWB-T)
• XFN-T: Hold > $34.78 | Hold-To-Buy > $35.35 | Sell-Line $34.78
• ZEB-T: Hold > $27.21 | Hold-To-Buy > $27.58| Sell-Line $26.99
• ZWB-T: Hold > $17.60 | Hold-To-Buy > $18.01 | Sell-Line $17.60

chart 1

TSX sector positioning this week
• Materials (XMA-T, XGD-T)
• XMA-T: Hold > $11.67 | Hold-To-Buy > $11.80| Sell-Line $11.50
• XGD-T: Hold > $10.61 | Hold-To-Buy > $11.05| Sell-Line $10.49

• Cannabis
• HMMJ-T: Hold > $16.35 | Hold-To-Buy > $17.75 | Sell-Line $15.95
• MJ: Hold > $29.82 | Hold-To-Buy > $30.28 | Sell-Line $28.12
• WEED-T: Hold > $42.52 | Hold-To-Buy > $42.52 | Sell-Line $41.18
• CGC: Hold-To-Buy > $32.80 | Sell-Line $30.16
• ACB-T: Hold-To-Buy > $7.85 | Sell-Line $7.10
• APHA-T: Hold-To-Buy > $7.25| Sell-Line $7.25
• CRON-T: Hold-To-Buy > $16.53 | Sell-Line $15.81
• TGOD-T: Hold-To-Buy > $3.50 | Sell-Line $2.59 • OGI-V: Hold-To-Buy > $4.99 | Sell-Line $4.19
• TLRY: Hold > $96.25 | Hold-To-Buy > $105.49 | Sell-Line $96.25
• FIRE-V: Hold-To-Buy > $1.55| Sell-Line $1.42
• GENE-V: Hold-To-Buy > $1.15 | Sell-Line $1.05
• HEXO-T: Hold-To-Buy > $5.53 | Sell-Line $4.92

• Industrials (ZIN-T)
• ZIN-T: Hold-To-Buy > $25.46 | Sell-Line $25.46

• Utilities (ZUT-T, ZWU-T)
• ZUT-T: Hold > $16.57| Sell-Line $16.35
• ZWU-T: Hold > $12.64 | Hold-To-Buy > $12.84 | Sell-Line $12.53

chart 2

TSX sector weights for the week
Staples (XST-T)
• XST-T: Hold-To-Buy > $55.94| Sell-Line $54.99

• Telecom (Telecom Equal Weight, BCE-T, RCI.B, T, SJR.B)
• BCE-T: Hold > $56.65 | Hold-To-Buy > $57.07 | Sell-Line $56.65
• RCI.B: Hold > $70.31 | Hold-To-Buy > $70.31| Sell-Line $69.24
• T: Hold > $47.25 | Hold-To-Buy > $47.66 | Sell-Line $46.67
• SJR.B: Hold-To-Buy > $24.80 | Sell-Line $24.80 & $24.52

• REITs (XRE-T, ZRE-T)
• ZRE-T: Hold > $21.67 | Hold-To-Buy: $21.67 | Sell-Line $21.30
• XRE-T: Hold > $17.54 | Hold-To-Buy: $17.54 | Sell-Line $17.07

• Technology (XIT-T) • XIT-T: Hold-To-Buy > $18.56 | Sell-Line $17.95

• Energy (XEG-T, ZEO-T)
• ZEO-T: Hold > $8.20 | Hold-To-Buy > $8.40 | Sell-Line $8.20
• XEG-T: Hold-To-Buy > $9.75 | Sell-Line $9.45 & $9.21.

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