Indices, crude sit on extreme highs; Japanese yen, the euro, and fold rest on short-term bullish supports, reports Trevor Smith of Trevor's Trading.
Daily charts of some symbols still show technical supports on extreme-range lows, while the three-day, weekly, and monthly charts are on extreme highs. Food-related commodities are in worse technical positions for a coming 3-5-month pullback, albeit seemingly unlikely amidst inflation goals.
Gasoline futures, with less rally energy in the early-week $67/barrel upthrust, may go sideways with an unexpected drop soon. A lightning-flash, out-of-range crude oil price of $44/barrel would simply indicate algorithmic programs/traders seeking the $40 yearly pivot, but $51 is the Fibonacci 50% target retracement level.
Sophisticated traders can monitor "Gasoline Futures vs. Brent Crude Crack Spread Swap" charts. Option chains disagree with my March-May time pivots by showing call volume until June when some put volume near my lower price strikes emerges. If crude reverses sooner, my possible time pivots for lower targets are in my ranges below.
My longstanding prediction is an additional 3-5 month market pullback near here in a concluding recessionary phase. If right, what type of event might spark the next pullback? South China Sea or other conflict, cyberattack or interest-rate financial events? Experts now compare today's monetary/consumer economic inflationary conditions to the pre-Vietnam Era and "Roaring 20s."
My last article identified market internals as the leading-indicator symbols; internals then formed bear candles and bull candles, each preceding market moves. Seven of 10 projected ranges printed as of Saturday, March 14, 2021, with missed ranges being very close.
Next Two Week’s Predicted Ranges (Written Saturday Night, March 13, 2021)
E-mini S&P 500
High Range 4001-3965; Low Range 3854-3833
Neutral-bearish rangebound expectations. Weekly Pivot: 3895 support/valuation may create a 3997-3880 actual range, Quarterly Pivot (Q1): 3575, Yearly Pivot: 3225
Japanese Yen
High Range 9347-9275; Low Range 9112-9081
Moderately bullish ranges from moving average supports in trending mathematic conditions likely to exceed my ranges. Yearly pivot .009498 has been hit and may pull price from above to re-print
Euro FX
High Range 1.210-1.203; Low Range 1.193-1.185
Neutral ranges with bullish bounce off moving average supports; Yearly pivot: 1.174
Gold
High Range $1768-$1740; Low Range $1714-1690
Bullish ranges in trending-pivots character; 20-Month & 80-Week Moving Average supports below near $1700. Yearly pivot: $1813 already printed but may pull from above.
Crude Oil
High Range $6804-6703; Low Range $6325-6068
Neutral-wide range in trending pivot math may trade beyond 1+/- standard deviation of $3.25 to $3.75 but, if just-over 1SD prints, I expect a high-side skew near $6724-6340; An attempt to reach the Yearly pivot: $40.19, as a sudden, sharp price thrust down to $44.33. $44.10 that quickly recovers is possible near March 20, April 19, May 25 as Fibonacci-calculation autotargets from my programs. No guarantees of accuracy/prices.
Prior Predicted Ranges (Written Saturday, February 27 for March 1-15, 2021)
E-mini S&P 500
High Range 3972-3847; Low Range 3783-3771
Bearish and Bullish expectations in ranges due to moving average supports and monthly-chart bearish setups. Quarterly Pivot (Q1): 3575, Yearly Pivot: 3225
Actual: 3958-3720
Japanese Yen
High Range 9475-9459; Low Range 9375-9360
Moderately bullish ranges from moving average supports in trending mathematic conditions likely to exceed my ranges. Yearly pivot .009498 has been hit and may pull price from above to re-print.
Actual: 9402-9155
Euro FX
High Range 1.220-1.214; Low Range 1.204-1.201
Bearish ranges with bullish bounce off clustered multitime frame, moving average supports; bear candles on Daily, Weekly, 2-Day charts. Yearly pivot: 1.174
Actual: 1.211-1.183
Gold
High Range $1780-$1762; Low Range $1724-1708
Slightly bullish ranges in rangebound-pivots character; 50-week moving average support in play. 20-Month & 80-Week Moving Average supports below near $1700. Yearly pivot: $1813 already printed but may pull from above.
Actual: $1757-1683
Crude Oil
High Range $6304-6210; Low Range $6043-5934
Bear-adjusted range in trending pivot math; Daily chart doji breakdown, momentum candle trade is in effect. Yearly pivot: $40.19
Actual: $6798-5924
Trevor Smith is a technical market analyst/forecaster who is registered as a Commodity Trading Advisor. You can view Trevor’s Trading here.
