With seasonality bullish for the rest of 2025, the assumption by many is that investors have nothing to worry about until 2026. But after Friday’s debacle, will it be spam for Thanksgiving and coal for Christmas? Here's my take, writes John Eade, president of Argus Research.
Just when the coast seemed clear for the rest of the year, the bears are growling instead of hibernating. Plus, cryptocurrencies have resumed their slide and we think there is a possibility for a lot more carnage ahead.
Bitcoin (3-Year Weekly Chart)
Source: StockCharts
Bitcoin (BTC) has been tracing out a megaphone pattern over the past four months, with the lower trendline of the pattern in the $94,000/$95,000 region when projecting out a week. Key trendline support on the weekly chart off the lows since September 2024, as well as the 50-week average, have been lost.
That could be quite bearish as both of these supports were clustered in the same area. A 38.2% retracement of the rally since September 2023 is at $87,500, and a 50% give-back targets $75,500. There is also chart support in the $74,000/$75,000 zone from the bottom in April 2025 and the top from March 2024.
Meanwhile, the US Dollar Index (USD) continues to flirt with important chart resistance at 100 -- and a breakout could signal a decent intermediate-term rally. The Commitment of Traders (COT) data for the greenback remains firmly bullish, while the data for BTC is mildly bearish. Intermediate-term advances and declines for BTC in recent years have been highly negatively correlated with the dollar.
