Just how much will surging crude oil prices cost investors – and the global economy? Let’s try to tally up the costs so far...and explore what might happen next.
Last week alone, US crude oil futures prices shot up 36%. That was the biggest rise in any week since the benchmark contract began changing hands in 1983. Then Sunday night and this morning, WTI futures soared ANOTHER 13%-plus to $102.44 before throttling back a bit. Crude hasn’t traded in the triple digits since 2022, so this is a big move.
Now let’s look at oil from a historical standpoint. This MoneyShow Chart of the Day (from the Wall Street Journal) shows inflation-adjusted prices going back to 1970. It only includes trading activity through last Friday, so it doesn’t capture the additional increase we’ve seen in the last 24 hours. But it DOES make clear that prices remain well below past peaks...so far.
Putting Rising Oil in Context: Prices from 1970-Present Day
Source: Wall Street Journal
Will things stay that way? Or are they going to get worse? It all depends on how long the effective blockade of shipping traffic through the Strait of Hormuz lasts. It’s a HUGE chokepoint for crude oil, liquefied natural gas, and other cargoes – and right now, hardly anything is making it through.
Group of Seven nations are discussing the emergency release of petroleum reserves to blunt the bottleneck impacts globally. Plus, US oil and natural gas output has surged in the last several years – helping cushion the increase in energy prices here at home.
But as this second MoneyShow Chart of the Day (from Bloomberg) shows, Middle East producers are running out of places to put barrels they pull out of the ground. So, one by one, they’re curtailing production. It’ll take time to get things back to “normal” even if the conflict were to end today – suggesting higher prices will linger for some time.
Source: Bloomberg
Bottom line: The costs are high. They’re getting higher. And that could have lasting impacts on markets through the rest of Q1 – and beyond.
