No, it’s not your imagination. EVERYTHING is more volatile in 2026 – it’s just a question of degree. And that means you have to adjust your trading strategies.
Check out the MoneyShow Chart of the Day. It shows the year-to-date change in the ICE BofAML MOVE Index (^MOVE), the CBOE Volatility Index (^VIX), the CBOE Gold Volatility Index (^GVZ), and the CBOE Crude Oil Volatility Index (^OVX). That covers Treasury bonds, stocks, gold, and oil.
Where the Worst Volatility is...and Isn’t
Source: TradingView
No surprise that oil is the big “winner” in the rising-vol race. The OVX has soared 224% so far this year. Equity vol is up more than 65%, while gold vol is up 33% and bond vol is up 30%. If you’re looking for a port in the volatility storm, you’re not finding it right now.
Some of the swings from day-to-day…or even hour-to-hour…have been breathtaking. While "headline” risk is the worst in the energy patch given the Middle East conflict, bond prices are also fluctuating more aggressively due to rapid shifts in monetary policy outlooks. And precious metals had a WILD start to 2026 after they essentially became “meme-i-fied.”
My advice? Play your cards closer to the vest if you’re an active trader. Trade smaller or less often. Or if you’re a longer-term investor with time on your side, take advantage of short-term dislocations to build positions on the cheap.
I can’t tell you what the next headline is going to say. But I can tell you that the technical and fundamental backdrop is weaker in 2026 than 2025. The data shows it. Ignoring that reality could be hazardous to your financial health.
