Last week, oil sank and stocks surged as discussions of an extended ceasefire in Iran raised hopes that the fog of war may begin to lift. On the surface, the equity battlefield responded with relief. Yet beneath the price advance, liquidity and capital flows told a less celebratory story, notes Buff Dormeier, chief technical analyst at Kingsview Partners.
The rally marched forward, but the supply lines were not fully committed. For the week, Capital Weighted Dollar Volume was high, yet 54% of capital flows were outflows. Inflows were average, while outflows ran above average.
Weekly Capital Weighted Volume was slightly below average, with upside volume below average and downside volume above average, with over 70% of the volume to the downside. In other words, price advanced, but capital was marching in a different direction.
Brent Crude Oil
S&P 500 Index (SPX)
The S&P 500 Index (^SPX) closed the week on an ominous note despite finishing Friday slightly higher. Friday, March 29 recorded the highest S&P 500 capital flow day since Nov. 25, 2025 and the highest total Capital Weighted Volume since Dec. 19. Yet 73% of Friday’s capital flows were outflows, even as the S&P 500 closed modestly higher.
Sentiment has also shifted meaningfully. At the end of March, the CBOE Total Put Call Ratio reflected elevated pessimism. By the end of May, that same measure had fallen to its lowest weekly close since Dec. 20, 2020, signaling a strong appetite for risk. The troops are no longer fearful. If anything, they may be growing too confident.
On the commodity front, oil fell nearly 7% on the week while remaining inside the massive range established on March 13. Trading volume was exceptionally light, the lowest weekly reading since the outbreak of the war.
Oil price momentum has weakened significantly, yet money flow remains bullishly extended. This suggests the energy front has lost tactical ground, but not necessarily strategic sponsorship. The ceasefire narrative may have cooled the oil advance, but the March battlefield range still defines the campaign.
For now, the bulls hold the field, but the supply lines are under inspection. In war and in markets, victory is not declared by movement alone. It is confirmed by the capital willing to defend the ground.
