Ask the bulls and they’ll tell you the semiconductor stocks will be back on track soon. Ask the bears and they’ll tell you the big run is all over except for the crying. As for the charts? They suggest it could be “Do or Die Time.”
Take a look at the MoneyShow Chart of the Day, a daily chart of the iShares Semiconductor ETF (SOXX) going back 12 months. It includes the 50-day Exponential Moving Average in blue.
iShares Semiconductor ETF (SOXX)
Source: TradingView
Clearly, the runup in the first half of 2026 was nothing short of extraordinary. But the SOXX did top out in June, then drop sharply in July.
It rallied this week as the S&P 500 Index (^SPX) rose to a record high. But the ETF itself didn’t hit a new high. Nor did it (yet) recapture its 50-day EMA. You could also argue it MIGHT be carving out the right shoulder of a head-and-shoulders top, though we don’t know for sure yet.
Bottom line? We can’t say definitively that the run in semis is over. What we CAN say is that chips are lagging the market – and that there are potential bearish technical scenarios in play.
Keep that in mind before you get TOO excited about the recent sector bounce. Or before you dismiss the possibility of rotating into OTHER groups that look to be in better shape.
