This month, the Bank of America Global Fund Manager Survey included 180 institutional managers with approximately $525 billion in assets under management. Here are three key trader takeaways, says Tom Hayes, editor of HedgeFundTips.
First, fund managers are now net 48% underweight bonds, the biggest underweight since May 2022 and the 17th straight month of underweight positioning. We are happy to take the other side.
(Editor’s Note: Tom is speaking at our 2026 MoneyShow Masters Symposium Sarasota, scheduled for Nov. 30 – Dec. 2. Click HERE to register.)
Rolling 10-year annualized real total returns on bonds have turned negative, a setup seen only three times in the past century (1920, the early 1950s, and 1981). Each one was a generational entry point. Investors are extrapolating today’s conditions (inflation expectations, elevated energy prices, war, etc.) out in perpetuity, while institutional money is already moving to lock in yield.
Second, BofA’s broadest sentiment gauge, built off cash levels, equity allocation, and global growth expectations, fell to 7 from 8 in September. That was the least bullish reading in three months after August ranked as the third most bullish survey since 2022. Sentiment has come off the boil, though at 7, managers remain overwhelmingly bullish and well above neutral.
Third, fund managers’ average cash level rose to 3.9% from 3.5%, the biggest monthly increase since March 2026. Even after the jump, cash remains low enough to keep the BofA Global FMS Cash Rule in sell signal territory, which flashes at or below 4%.
