Another global rise in interest rates, but do stocks now finally “care?” I think it’s for sure gaining more attention – and 5% for the US 10-Year Treasury Yield is the level I have major eyes on. We touched it for a day back in October 2023, highlights Peter Boockvar, editor of The Boock Report.
We must be watching rates in Japan and Europe – and not just what US growth and inflation are doing – in trying to predict where US long rates go. We’re all in this bond boat together. So, I’ll say again that I believe the main catalyst, along with others, for the rise in long rates has been the sharp rise in yields in Japan over the past three years (ever since they effectively ended yield curve control).
(Editor’s Note: Peter is speaking at the 2026 MoneyShow/TradersEXPO Orlando, scheduled for Oct. 5-7. Click HERE to register.)
Japanese 10-Year Government Bond Yield
The policies of the Bank of Japan and the multi-decade interest rate suppression there had been the anchor keeping global rates low. That basically ended in 2023. Only now it seems to be garnering more focus as multi-decade highs in yields are happening seemingly daily now.
I remain a bear on long duration bonds. The only longer-duration bonds we own are in TIPS and emerging market local currency bonds.
Back to whether stocks are now going to care, I’ll take this line from the Aug. 24 op-ed from Stan Druckenmiller: “The long-term Treasury yield is the most important price in the world.” Thus, the equity markets need to pay attention.
