18 Stocks for a Sunny Year's End
Signs from China, the US, and even the European economies suggest a positive market through the end of 2012. Here's where to put your money if that holds true, writes MoneyShow's Jim Jubak, also of Jubak's Picks.
In my most recent column, "3 Ticking Time Bombs of 2012," I gave you my "relatively positive" timeline of macro trends for the fourth quarter.
Today, I'm going to give you some picks for profiting if my estimate of the 65:35 odds in favor of a relatively optimistic macro picture for the quarter turns out to be correct, a rough guide to how to stage the implementation of those picks, and some suggestions on what to do if the quarter winds up on the 35% side of my 65:35 forecast.
I expect you to use my suggestions to mix and match with your own view of the quarter to come, and with the stocks you already own, to make up an individualized portfolio. Your goals and risk tolerance are undoubtedly different from mine, and your portfolio should reflect your parameters.
Let me start with my take on the US economy for the quarter.
In the US, Tech and Homebuilding
In my October 5 column, I wrote that the US economy is:
- showing signs of growth—accelerating from very sluggish to moderately sluggish
- the financial markets now assume that Washington won't really drive the country off a fiscal cliff and back into recession in 2013.
"Both of those assumptions could turn out to be completely wrong," I wrote, but—and this is a critical piece of timing—"investors aren't likely to have evidence that they're wrong until the very end of the quarter or until the beginning of 2013."
If my view of the macro background for US stocks in the fourth quarter is correct, I think it's critical that you review your US portfolio to make sure you have enough exposure to growth stocks, so that you'd participate in any gains in the quarter.