Major Market Ranges for Week of Sep. 16: Markets' Bullish Lows, the Euro & Crude

09/13/2019 12:36 pm EST

Focus: MARKETS

Trevor Smith

Commodity Trading Advisor, www.trevorsmithfnp.com

Traders should be long the euro and, possibly, crude oil in the short-term (weekly options). The euro featured a bullish engulfing hammer candlestick on strong volume on both daily and weekly charts.  A retracement into the gap up space near 1.111 will present a good long entry. Pivots for next week are overlapping and engulfing, signaling a massive breakout.

Last week, all option spread trades worked and markets hit 7/10 projected range extrema as of midnight Thursday. A S&P/ES drop to the unfulfilled 2870 target is still outstanding. Volume Profile studies in daily, weekly charts show 2870 as Value Area Low. Current ES levels are over Value Area High lines on all time frames, leading me to wonder how many buyers enjoy paying continued high prices.   

Next Week’s Predicted Ranges

E-mini S&P 500

High Range 3055-3034; Low Range: 2987-2971 (outlier events=2870. 3055 Monthly Camarilla Reversal Resistance)

Buy 3030/3025 put spread weekly expiration on Sep 20; Rationale: weekly pivots zone, week’s midrange below current high price in decreasing daily volume

Japanese Yen

High Range 9360-9340: Low Range 9272-9228  

Sell 9275/9300 put spread weeklies; Exit “Buy 9400/9350 put spread monthly”. Rationale: Weekly 20-day moving average support, 9305 fair value range midpoint.

Euro FX

High Range 1.119-1.117; Low Range 1.109-1.106

Sell 1.112/1.115 weekly call spread; hold 1.10/1.105 Monthly call spread, buy 1.115/1.117 Monthly call spread; Rationale: Weekly 20-day moving average 1.121 above; short call spread to 1.112 mid-range, daily 20-day moving average retest.

Gold

High Range $1545-$1528; Low Range $1493-$1478

Sell weekly put spreads $1510/$1505; exit short monthly call spreads on down moves

Rationale: weekly pivot zone, range midpoints $1511-15 overhead to current price

Crude Oil

High Range $5750-$5630; Low Range $5354-$5294

Sell put spreads weeklies 5550/5500 Rationale: countertrend bounce off moving average support up to weekly pivot, range midpoints; For larger range breakout overhead buy $60/61.50 call spread monthly November expiration as example of upside breakout trade (if breaks upside) or long calendar, diagonal spreads

Last Week’s Projected Ranges Versus Actuals As of midnight, Thu., Sep. 12.

E-mini S&P 500

High Range 3030-3006; Low Range 2925-2910 (outlier event=2870)

Actual: 3021-2957

Buy 2995/2990 put spread Sept. 13 weekly expiration; Rationale: $ADVN dropped again today; range midpoint, weekly pivot is at 2955.

Japanese Yen

High Range 9435-9400; Low Range 9324-9294  

Actual:9371-9243

Buy 9300/9350 call spread weeklies; Buy 9400/9350 put spread monthly expiration. Rationale: 9350 weekly pivot, 9370 range midpoint weekly targets; 9305 Weekly 20-day moving average lower slow target  

Euro FX

High Range 1.116-1.111; Low Range 1.100-1.095

Actual:1114-1092

Buy 1.105/1.10 weekly put spread; Buy 1.10/1.105 Monthly call spread; Rationale: Sell/Buy tails on intraweek candles, so midpoint of range below likely; bull signals higher time frames need low entry

Gold

High Range $1550-$1535; Low Range $1500-$1481

Actual: $1532-$1492

Sell call spreads weekly/monthly $1520/$1515 (adjust monthly strikes to find where to collect premium); Rationale: weekly chart inverted hammers, three-day chart 

Crude Oil

High Range $5850-$5740; Low Range $5490-$5410

Actual: $5876-$54

Buy weekly put spreads near 5650/5700 during Sept. 6 rally up inverted hammer candle’s green tail;(5625 is range midpoint below); For larger range breakout overhead buy $60/61.50 call spread monthly November expiration as example of upside breakout trade (if breaks upside) or use long calendar, diagonal spreads.

See More analysis from Trevor here

Related Articles on MARKETS