The SPDR Gold Shares (GLD) has stabilized after retracing 61.8% of the parabolic run that started in mid-November. GLD was close to testing its 50-day exponential moving average (EMA), which it hadn't been near for almost six months, notes John Eade, president of Argus Research.
Price was supported by both the 10-week EMA and the trendline off the top of the bullish channel that has been in place since April 2024. GLD now has retraced 50% of its two-day crash; a 61.8% retracement comes in at $476. Initial support from the 21-day EMA lies at $451, with the 50-day EMA at $429.
SPDR Gold Shares (GLD)
Data by YCharts
Chart support from the recent low is down at $423. Below there, the next area would be down near $400. Based on the prior history of parabolic moves and major breaks, we lean heavily toward the idea that a major top is in – and we will see additional downside in the months to come.
The one strong argument that this advance has further to go is that the bases for both GLD and the iShares Silver Trust (SLV) leading up to the current run were huge, at 12 and 14 years, respectively. The bigger the base, the higher in space.
