Around the time you read this, I’ll be touching down in Texas for our 2026 MoneyShow Masters Symposium Dallas. One important trend I’ll discuss there: How we MAY have an interest rate problem on our hands.
Take a look at the MoneyShow Chart of the Day here. It shows the yield on the 30-Year Treasury Bond going all the way back to the early 2000s. As of Tuesday afternoon, it was 5.02% – essentially the highest since 2007!
US 30-Year Treasury Bond Yield (2003-2026)
Source: TradingView
This isn’t just a US phenomenon, either. It’s happening around the world. UK bond yields just hit their highest since 1998, for instance! Plus, we got the triple whammy yesterday of higher oil prices, higher inflation data, and higher bond yields – all in one day.
When it comes to the stock market impact of higher interest rates, I always default to my “Three ‘F’ Rule.” When rates rise Far enough, Fast enough, and For long enough, they can hammer the equity market.
If the move is more gradual, it will only lead to rotational action. You’ll see money moving out of growth names and into value stocks, for instance, or out of tech and in to financials.
It’s no coincidence that the State Street Financial Select Sector SPDR ETF (XLF) rose 0.7% yesterday, while the State Street Technology Select Sector SPDR ETF (XLK) fell 1.5%. Nor is it coincidence that the iShares Rusell 2000 Growth ETF (IWO) notably underperformed the iShares Russell 2000 Value ETF (IWN).
A lot of people are overweight a lot of tech names – especially in subsectors like semiconductors. If yields catch fire, it’s likely going to put pressure on them. And that’s why I’m going to recommend coping strategies to our Dallas audience soon. I hope to see you there!
