USD Very Close to Challenging the 200-Day Moving Average Again

Focus: CURRENCIES

Kristian Kerr Image Kristian Kerr Chief Technical Strategist, Forex Capital Markets LLC


Kristian Kerr of DailyFX.com takes to the charts to analyze the US Dollar Index that is now very close to challenging the 200-day moving average yet again and to determine whether or not the USD seems like it is now changing its tune.

Talking Points:


  • USD back at 200-day moving average
  • Important downside break looming?
  • US Dollar—USD Changing Its Tune?

chart

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Is the FXCM US Dollar Index (equally weighted basket of USD versus EUR, JPY, GBP, and AUD) changing its tune? Since August of last year, there have been four undercuts of the 200-day moving average. In August, September, and October when this occurred, the close back over the moving average was followed by an almost immediate push back to new highs. The same thing looked to be going on last month after the index settled below the moving average on the 11th and then closed back over it on the 12th. Like in the prior episodes, the dollar rallied steadily after doing this for a couple of weeks, but failed well shy of the old highs and is now very close to challenging the 200-day moving average yet again.

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By Kristian Kerr, Senior Currency Strategist, DailyFX.com