It looks like we’re starting the week off with a bit of a post-Easter let down in equities, gold, and silver. Oil is off a bit, too, while the dollar is stronger and Treasuries are flat.
On the news front...
If you’re looking for volatility and exciting trading action, you’ll find it in...TREASURIES?? Yep, that’s what the data shows according to Bloomberg. While stocks have swung around on various banking sector headlines the last few weeks, 2-year Treasury yields just plummeted the most since 1982 while the “MOVE” Index of Treasury volatility just hit its highest since 2008.
Whether that persists depends on whether the pre-recessionary signals some markets have been sending out prove prescient...or overdone. U.S. job growth did slow to 236,000 in March from 326,000 a month prior. That was the lowest level since December 2020, but not recessionary by any stretch.
Meanwhile, despite the weakness in housing, commercial construction activity remains robust and companies are having trouble finding workers, according to the Wall Street Journal. Contractors say EV plants, warehouses, and manufacturing facilities are key sources of strength.
Personal computer demand is falling sharply from pandemic-spiked levels, with Apple (AAPL) seeing some of the broadest drops, per IDC. PC shipments tanked 29% year-over-year to 56.9 million units in Q1 2023, with Apple shipments down 40.5%. Smartphone demand is also cooling, leading to a build up in semiconductor supply.
