If you’ve been trading the markets for any length of time you will know the two main emotions ...
...and Elsewhere in the Advisory World
03/07/2003 12:00 am EST
"We reiterate our bullish posture on IBM (IBM NYSE) with the shares finding support in the 75 - 77 region for the past few weeks," says Bernie Schaeffer, chairman and CEO of Schaeffer's Investment Research . "While the stock has displayed strength in a challenging market, options players are predicting IBM will retreat. This is seen by its steadily climbing Schaeffer's put/call open interest ratio, which stands at 1.39. This is just a shade below the highest reading for the past year of 1.43. Historically, such high readings have been a leading bullish indication for IBM over the following 20 sessions. Given the technical backdrop, we believe Big Blue should proceed higher in price in the near term. Traders should continue to target a move to 84.80 on IBM with a stop-loss on a close below 75.50."
"We've been eyeing a short position in Qualcomm (QCOM NASDAQ) for a while and it seems that there isn't much time to wait before the selloff in the stock resumes," says Elliott Gue, editor of Wall Street Winners . "There was a heavy-volume selloff after the company announced it added a small dividend to make its shares more attractive. Bottom line, Qualcomm is one of the last men left standing, and we think it's coming down due to overcapacity in the sector, high multiples, and horrible-looking technical indicators to top it off. Short QCOM at prices above 34.75. Use limit orders and be quick. Cover the short position on any move above 38.50."
"I consider gold's correction as a buying opportunity," says Adrian Day, editor of the Global Analyst. "The truth is that gold had moved too far too fast, accelerating out of its orderly upmove. So a correction was overdue, exaggerated by futures positions. Where are we now? Gold's near-term direction will depend largely on developments regarding Iraq and the dollar, as well as technical market factors. The move back up to $390 won't be as swift as the decline, but over the next several weeks we expect to see gold move back up over $370. Meanwhile, gold shares now offer good value again, both relative to bullion and to fundamental measures. For those who are underinvested in gold stocks, then, this is a good time to buy some of the top-quality seniors including Newmont Mining (NEM NYSE), Harmony (HMY NYSE), Freeport (FCX NYSE), Meridian Gold (MDG NYSE), Gold Fields (GFI NYSE), and AngloGold Ltd. (AU NYSE)."
"Several intermediate-term indicators have turned negative," says technical analyst Ralph Acampora, technical analyst with Prudential Securities. "Volume - as seen by our 'Buying Power/Selling Pressure' indicators continue to point to a much weaker market. Price - the well known Dorsey Wright Point and Figure Service has confirmed that their 'Bullish Percent' indicator is flashing an intermediate-term negative signal. And momentum - the weekly MACD Indicator of the S&P 500 experienced a 'dead cross' last week - a sign that further deterioration is upon us. Conclusion: the stock market is currently in a weak spot prior to a resolution of the Iraqi situation which will most likely produce a rally. Unfortunately, the confluence of indicators just mentioned along with a series of support violations suggests that this weak spot could easily take the leading market averages back to their respective October lows, if not, much lower."
"Right now, the tech stocks that we really like are Energizer Holdings (ENR NYSE)," says Vahan Janjigian, editor of Special Situation Survey and The Forbes Growth Investor . "This is a company that recently announced they are buying the Schick shaving division of Pfizer, putting them more in direct competition with Gillette. We like a very small company called MTS Systems (MTSC NASDAQ). They make equipment for the automotive industry primarily, but also for other areas. Nokia (NOK NYSE) is a stock that has recently shown up in our screens. The stock is down quite a bit recently. Of course, it's a telecom stocks, which is out of favor. But it's starting to do well in our rankings. One more I'd mention is QLogic (QLGC NASDAQ), the software company."
"Some of my best picks have been in the bond market during the past several years," says Neil George, editor of bygeorgenewsletter.com . "And it's not just for income, either. Bonds from around the world consistently provide opportunities for gains, and credit and inflation conditions are improving, helping to make fixed-income assets more attractive to hold. Buy the Templeton Global Income Fund (GIM NYSE), which is trading at a discount of slightly less than 2%. It offers an attractive yield exceeding 6%. Buy it now and hold as long as the premium remains less than 4%. I also like an Iraqi oil play. While not announced, I think that the interests of France's Total Fina Elf (TOT NYSE) has been granted primary rights to develop Iraqi oil reserves."
"Nuvelo (NUVO NASDAQ), which was formerly known as Hyseq, is creating value for its shareholders," says John McCamant, editor of The Medical Technology Stock Letter. "The company will focus on developing alfimeprase for peripheral arterial occlusion and catheter occlusion. Catheter occlusion is a large market opportunity with five million catheters put in each year and 25% becoming occluded for a potential market of 1.25 million patients. As of the merger date, January 31, 2003, the company had a cash position of $53.2 million. This is projected to last through the end of 2004. We understand that investors have become hesitant to invest in companies that have undergone restructurings. But this new entity has over $2 per share in cash. Plus, they have a promising therapeutic in alfimeprase. This makes the current sub-$1 stock price a no-brainer to us. This stock is a strong buy at current levels."
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