Nasdaq Nears the Golden Spiral

05/17/2017 2:55 am EST

Focus: STRATEGIES

Jeff Greenblatt

Director, Lucas Wave International, LLC

The NASDAQ high on Tuesday (May 16) was 6170. Fibonacci aficionados will realize that is 10 points shy of a perfect 6180 golden spiral Jeff Greenblatt. He’s the director of Lucas Wave International and editor of The Fibonacci Forecaster.

The most important market theme of the year is the promises the crowd perceived it would receive from the Trump victory. Trump intends to get the economy going again. That’s why the market has been in major rally mode since the election. The growth agenda is now baked in the cake.

You know what that means if issues like tax reform never come to fruition. I’ve been harping on it all year. The market can and will get very nasty if it perceives these victory “bonuses” are taken away. But that’s not all that is going on. Taking it one step further, I remember Starbucks (SBUX) reported sales were down across the country after the Ferguson riots which shows the public does not like social unrest, even if that unrest materialized in a faraway city one can only see on television.

The public doesn’t like the constant drip, drip, drip of bad news every single day. The 24-hour news drip cycle accelerated last week after the president fired FBI Director James Comey. By Thursday morning (May 11) the market dropped big but it recovered prompting Fox Business host Stuart Varney to note the negativity may finally be interfering with Trump’s growth agenda. The stakes were raised even more Tuesday afternoon (May 16) and the market had its biggest selling day since March 21.

When this sort of thing happens, my job is to look at the cycles and the numbers. If I can’t find anything, odds are it’s a fake out. If I do find anything, it is relative to how good the calculation turns out to be.

I’m always looking for something to jump off the page. The more it jumps off the page, the more important it will turn out.

chart

So, what am I seeing? The NASDAQ high on Tuesday was 6170. Fibonacci aficionados will realize that is 10 points shy of a perfect 6180 golden spiral. But the best pivots form because of price and time. If all I have is 6170, that can cause some disruption, it already is.

But in the end run, it will be retraced. I’ve seen better calculations not make it, although the Dow top of 21169 at 170 days from the Brexit low is still holding. I didn’t realize it meant something until this morning (May 17) as Tuesday’s high in the Dow was 21033.53 and 53 trading days off that top.

On another note, this market is a couple of days’ shy of the two-year anniversary of the S&P 500 Index (SPX) top in 2015 which was May 20, 2015. Finally, we are 615 months back to the 1966 top. That is a top generally recognized by the Elliott Wave community as the end of their major third wave up from the end of World War II. As far as I’m concerned, my radar has the 30th anniversary, 360 months back to the top of the 1987 crash. It is still possible and get us very close to 619-20 months off the 66 top and line up with the 360 month symmetry to the 87 scenario.

Does today’s action have a chance to extend? Yesterday’s high in the YM was 20995. This morning at 90 minutes into the session the YM was 95-15 min bars down. That was a chance to mitigate the damage but they took it out. That is the mathematics of this market.

In terms of psychology, let’s just say the political intrigue is due to get worse before it gets better. Promises made to the crowd could be broken.

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