Here are six long-term charts where I expect major shifts ahead: Global Equity, USD, S&P 500, Gold, TSX and Oil, writes Ziad Jasani July 1.
View my Market Strategy Session
Recorded: 11:15 am, July 5, 2018,
Duration: 1:10:58.
Global Equity Market (ACWI): The accelerated uptrend starting Jan 2016 has broken.
Using fibo retracement and time-lines, we are expecting global equities down -17% by Oct. 23, 2018.
USD (UUP): With Quantitative Tightening (QT) and rate normalization on course for the USD by the Federal Reserve, we can expect the USD to strengthen +3.4% to +7.5 in the back half of 2018, but a short-term cooling of -1.7% is expected first.
S&P 500: Following the path pf the expected drop in Global equity markets (above), the S&P 500 is likely to outperform by declining at a slower pace with a roughly -11% drop in the back half of 2018.
Gold: Gold is stuck in a long-term range ($1,380.9 - $1,106), and less likely to break-out this year as QT and rising rates continue to strengthen the USD. However, in the short-term a bounce is expected that can take gold back up to $1,267 to $1,286.
TSX: A -12.5% drop taking the TSX to 14,237 is expected in the back-half of 2018. Once support at 15,125 is violated we can expect the move to begin.
OIL: Currently on path to $75 but highly over-bought. A consolidation period is expected before the next leg higher on Oil to $86.66 (+16.9%); as speculators capitalize on the managed supply and growing demand aspects of Oil as most economic expansions globally start peaking.
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