Bill Baruch, president and founder of Blue Line Futures, previews E-mini S&P, Gold, Crude, Forex and Treasury markets and today’s economic report calendar. Follow his reports Monday-Friday on MoneyShow.com and short Midday Markets video.

E-mini S&P (December)

Last week’s close: Settled at 2779, down 29.75 on Friday and up 54.75 on the week.

Fundamentals: U.S. benchmarks are moving into the red this morning after paring early session gains on European weakness. The S&P (SPX) traded to a high of 2795.25 before Brexit hopes were soured and as Italy’s budget deadline looms tomorrow. The German DAX is down 0.85% but it is the resulting U.S. dollar (USD) strength weighing directly on U.S. stocks; the British pound (GPB) is down a penny while the euro (EUR) is down 0.67% and trekking to fresh lows of the year.

On this Veterans Day holiday, the economic calendar is bare and there are no notable earnings. Newly appointed San Francisco Fed President Daly speaks at 2:30 pm EDT. With Europe and the dollar weighing on the tape, emerging markets are also moving into the red. Although, the headlines do not point to a reprieve, it may be the technicals that matter most.

Technicals: The overnight gasp for air cannot ...  

 

Crude Oil (December)

Last week’s close: Settled at 60.19, down 0.48 on Friday and down 2.95 on the week.

Fundamentals: Crude Oil is up more than 1% today and looking to break its streak of 10 consecutive losing sessions. OPEC’s JMMC met over the weekend and Saudi Arabia has said it will get the ball rolling in tightening supply by reducing exports in December by 500,000 bpd. Ultimately, the committee is considering a 1 mbpd output cut to be debated at the full OPEC meeting on December 6.

Sentiment is certainly turning negative after Crude Oil closed 20% from its high which is technically classified as a bear market. This can be seen as Managed Money shorts in the week ending November 6 increased their position by 36% to the highest level in exactly a year. This week’s inventory read will be crucial and any recovery must be confirmed through this week’s EIA data. A bottom is not a price, it is a process.

We have been cautious and hesitant to say the bottoming process has begun, but considering many variables, on Friday’s Midday Market Minute, we said we now feel it has.

Technicals: Price action is showing signs of wanting to stabilize, but it certainly ... 

 

Gold (December)

Last week’s close: Settled at 1208.6, down 16.5 on Friday and down 24.7 on the week.

Fundamentals: U.S. dollar strength has put immense pressure on Gold. The euro is making a new low on the year against the dollar and the yuan has now lost 1% since November 2. A hawkish tone from the Federal Reserve at last week’s policy meeting coupled with a hot PPI number has been a major catalyst in the dollar strength. While seasonal weakness for the metal has added weight to the tape, the Fed and inflation will be put to the test this week. Today, San Francisco Fed President Daly, a voting member in December, speaks at 2:30 pm EDT. She and Fed Governor Brainard speak tomorrow. Most importantly, Fed Chair Powell speaks Wednesday and Thursday. Also, the more closely watched CPI inflation read is due out Wednesday.

Technicals: On Friday, Gold traded to the lowest level since the October 11th spike and is now eyeing major three-star support at ... 

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View a short video: Bill Baruch: Trading Futures. Gold, USD, yuan.

Recorded: TradersExpo Chicago July 24, 2018.
Duration: 4:34.