Euro’s weekly, three-day chart candlesticks may tempt traders to buy call spreads, while Bitcoin’s and gold’s breakout directions are unclear, writes Trevor Smith of Trevor's Trading.
Although the euro is in bullish breakout conditions, Bitcoin futures are, to a lesser degree, also entering narrow ranges with concurrent narrowing Bollinger Bands on the two-day chart; it could lead to breakout/breakdown prices. I just don’t know Bitcoin’s direction other than to mention volume studies’ early sell warnings are consistent with the monthly bearish chart. My best predictive guess is that Bitcoin maximally destroys the most market participants by making a false upthrust to its overhead pivots before collapsing. Gold is untellin’ as well.
My last article predicted an “Expanded bidirectional range with tendency for inaccuracy” which then offered outlier two-standard deviation numbers of 4748-58, 4606; it also predicted the market bearish sentiments on/near “November 20, 25, and 28” with the 25th ultimately being 2021’s worst losing day. Eight of 10 projected ranges printed as of November 30, 2021.
Next Two Week’s Predicted Ranges (Written November 30, 2021)
E-mini S&P 500
High Range 4744-4625; Low Range 4578-4562 (outlier: 4534 pivot-moving average cluster)
Neutral-bearish range; 4630 December Pivot above pulls; 4534 is both a monthly camarilla pivot and 50-day moving average. Space weather and non-terrestrial event dates for potential bearish sentiment are December 1-3, (the 6th but markets are closed on Sat. Sun. night futures could gap down), the 9th and 11th. Solar cycle 25 is now in effect with some coronal hole solar wind approaching earth this week. Yearly Floor Pivot: 3225;
High Range 62705-59750; Low Range 55525-51792
Neutral-Bearish ranges likely inaccurate under breakout conditions; Bearish monthly chart; these overhead pivots on higher time frames may invoke a rally: 60750 60132
High Range 1.152-1.142; Low Range 1.128-1.122
Bullish ranges for prices under fair valuations by pivot math pulling from above. 1.153 50-day moving average.
High Range $1825-$1801; Low Range $1768-1758
Neutral ranges in narrow-range breakout conditions. Above range likely to be wrong/exceeded due to blowout-breakout setups in ranges, pivots, bullish seasonality, inflation news.
High Range $73.56-71.24; Low Range $66.12-64.09
Bearish ranges in bounce-before-another-downwave mode (wave 3 depending on wave counts). Yearly pivot: $40.19; $54-$46 Fibonacci 50% level that quickly recovers is possible as a third-wave end target.
Prior Predicted Ranges (Written November 14 for November 15-30, 2021)
E-mini S&P 500
High Range 4733-4707; Low Range 4663-4644 (Note: 4758, 4748, 4606 outliers would fulfill Monthly 1-SD range)
Expanded bidirectional range with tendency for inaccuracy in these conditions. Space weather dates for bearish sentiment may be near November 20, 25 and 28th. While Solar cycle 25 is now in effect, several sources assert that a “Little Ice Age” is unlikely; readers can monitor both topics in development as space weather prediction models evolve/advance. Yearly Floor Pivot: 3225; Actual: 4740-4557
High Range 69485-66430; Low Range 61250-59598
Bearish ranges; option chain skew is still very bullish in bearish technical charts. See monthly chart.
High Range 1.161-1.158; Low Range 1.155-1.150
Bullish-neutral ranges under moving average pulls from above. 1.160 monthly pivot target on the table.
Actual: 1.147 (rounding 1.1469 because I declare only four digits herein) -1.119
High Range $1900-$1882; Low Range $1852-1834
Neutral ranges in narrow-range.
High Range $83.86-82.32; Low Range $79.80-78.63
Bearish ranges. An attempt by the monthly-chart bear candle to reach the yearly pivot: $40.19, as a sudden, sharp news-sparked price thrust down to $54-$46 Fibonacci 50% level that quickly recovers is possible. Negative divergence appearing in charts—prepare for at least a minor pullback!
Trevor Smith is a technical market analyst/forecaster who is registered as a Commodity Trading Advisor. You can view Trevor’s Trading here.