With bearish higher time frame charts, countertrend bounces from news appear next, writes Trevor Smith of Trevor's Trading.
Monthly-turn traders who make calendar-date purchases on down days toward the end of each month may win in early May. My rationale for this idea is that two-day, three-day, and weekly charts technically indicate reversal rally conditions for the next two-week period.
Analysts can view indices and other symbols I track on daily charts with Bollinger Band studies to verify it. I am anticipating positive news that has not happened yet with red-candle charts on lows on a Sunday afternoon. Traders should consider that yearly, monthly, and quarterly bearish charts could override coming rallies, while not underestimating the dollar-cost averaging that happens toward any month’s end—people invest portions of their paychecks near the middle and end of a given month. To many casual market participants, a down day in the last week of a month presents a buying opportunity. Calendar-date strategists who swing trade the monthly turn often look for sell days near the first, fourth, ninth, or eleventh of the following month. If it happens and starts late on May first, my range math projections estimate that S&P futures reverse from 4130 up to 4310. Option chain pricing disagrees, showing about a 33% chance of 4225 and making my 4310 an unlikely print.
Disclosure: I’m long using Nadex binary options on a day trade expiring Monday’s close over 4138.
My last article entitled, Full Moon Reversals (moneyshow.com), I wrote that “events near April 22 that may coincide with bearish sentiment…” with that being the date that took out S&P futures’ lows. I reiterated my prediction of food riots/insecurity, as I continue to viscerally feel the people suffering from hunger and continue to contact food banks/institutes/agencies to encourage specific future interventions—none will even discuss it with me. As another follow-up note, two of my expected three changes in leading players in the Ukraine conflict have now occurred with the Biden Administration’s engagement of Retired Army Lt. Gen. Terry Wolff to coordinate Ukraine security assistance. My “outlier: 4520 target if >1 SD” idea happened—but only 4509 printed. As of May first, 2022, nine of ten projected ranges printed.
Next Two Weeks’ Predicted Ranges (Written April 30, 2022)
E-mini S&P 500 (ES=F)
High Range 4310-4278; Low Range 4125-4090
Bullish range 150-point rally possible. Space weather/non-terrestrial event dates that may coincide with bearish sentiment on May 3, 11, & 15; Option chains disagree, traders may place high range lower.
Bitcoin (BTC/USD)
High Range 41580-40669; Low Range 38025-36550
Neutral-bullish ranges; 41210 is May’s monthly pivot price pulling from above.
Euro FX (EUR/USD)
High Range 1.172-1.066; Low Range 1.051-1.038
Neutral-bullish; 1.071 as May monthly pivot.
Gold (GC=F)
High Range $1927-$1912; Low Range $1879-1866
Neutral bullish range. Bearish candlesticks prevail-eventually.
Crude Oil (CL=F)
High Range $109.00-106.40; Low Range $102.48-100.80
Neutral ranges. Yearly pivot: $40.19; $46 level is possible-eventually. For now, a $115-level stops run higher on short traders selling the monthly-chart-candle prints soon.
Prior Predicted Ranges (Written April 17, for April 17-30, 2022)
E-mini S&P 500
High Range 4478-4451 (outlier: 4520 target if >1 SD); Low Range 4367-4447
Neutral-bullish range may exceed 1-Standard Deviation (1-SD). Space weather/non-terrestrial event dates include the current solar wind stream earth is currently in, as well as other events near April 22 that may coincide with bearish sentiment; projected lows should occur early in the period.
Actual: 4,509-4,118
Bitcoin
High Range 43898-41500; Low Range 39250-38450
Neutral-bullish ranges; Price is on 20-month moving average support.
Actual: 43010-37665
Euro FX
High Range 1.102-1.095; Low Range 1.080-1.072
Neutral-bullish wide, trending ranges; 1.112 as 50-day moving average target if reversal rally gets energized by coming news.
Actual: 1.095-1.049
Gold
High Range $2011-$1991; Low Range $1959-1941
Neutral range. Bullish continuation setup short-term, but bearish candlesticks prevail-eventually.
Actual: $2,003-1,870
Crude Oil
High Range $112.00-109.40; Low Range $100.85-97.54
Neutral-bullish ranges. Yearly pivot: $40.19; $46 Fibonacci 50% level is possible-eventually. For now, a $115-level stops run higher on short traders selling the monthly-chart-candle prints soon.
Actual: $109.20-95.28
Trevor Smith is a technical market analyst/forecaster who is registered as a Commodity Trading Advisor. You can view Trevor’s Trading here.
