Bears won an unlikely victory on Friday as stronger results at Amazon.com (AMZN) failed to lift the Nasdaq 100, states Jon Markman, editor of Strategic Advantage.
The benchmark index ended at 15,275, a decline of 0.5%, even though its superstar e-commerce component soared almost 9%. For the week the Nasdaq lost 3%. More importantly, bulls looked past the first clear sign that enterprises are loosening their purse strings. Amazon Web Services is the largest cloud computing company in the world by sales. AWS saw cloud revenue expand last quarter to $22.1 billion, up 12% year-over-year. The unit generated $5.24 billion in profits.
And Andy Jassy, Amazon.com's chief executive officer, said that companies are beginning to move from optimizing their cloud workloads to driving innovation. The implication is more spending is coming. That should have been a powerful narrative for bulls. It mostly fell on deaf ears. Traders seem more worried that the index is extended and in need of a correction. The late selling on Friday was not great for bulls. Weakness into the close during the past four days has become a theme. Professionals are showing the first signs that they are less confident. They are buying dips, getting an initial rally, then watching their profits slip away as the session progresses.
The close for the NDX on Friday was especially troublesome because the support level at 15,300 was violated. The next important support level is 15,040, the rising 50-day moving average. Bulls are likely to concede a decline to that level in the near term, barring some unforeseen bullish event. This decline would not be terrible for bulls. The longer-term trend for the NDX is clearly higher. Still, it is time to be more cautious. Resistance for the benchmark is now 15,420, the 20-day moving average.
NASDAQ 100 Timing Model: Members bought ProShares Ultra QQQ (QLD) at $63.00 on June 28, then sold half the position on July 19 at $70.59 for a 12.1% gain. Now set up to sell the second half at $75.70 lmt gtc. Keep the stop at $64.53 stp, effective after 11 am only.
