The market’s correction started out focused mostly on glamour stocks. Then it spread to the Nasdaq as a whole, which knifed below its 50-day line recently. But we are making one small move — we’re starting a half-sized stake in Noble (NE), which looks like a leading energy driller, notes Mike Cintolo, editor of Cabot Growth Investor.
Our Cabot Tides turned red last week and our Two-Second Indicator confirmed the weakness as more stocks hit new lows. But our Cabot Tides NOW have at least a shot at a “shakeout buy” signal — where every index dips below their 50-day lines for a brief time (usually a week or two) before quickly recouping that key area. If it happens alongside a still-bullish Cabot Trend Lines, such signals in the past have often been powerful.
Meanwhile, NE had a big breakout and run in early July, and since then has had plenty of opportunity to give back a chunk of those gains as the market’s selling has spread to the broad market and oil prices have wobbled. But instead, volume has been light, every dip has found support, and shares continue to trade in a tight range.
Yes, some of the attraction here is the recent upturn in oil prices. But far more important to us is that trends in this space tend to last a long time (you don’t just build a new deepwater rig in a few weeks). Many drillers are avoiding speculative building this time around, which means supply should remain tight for a long time, boosting dayrates for Noble’s rigs.
Then there are shareholder returns: Similar to oil explorers a couple of years ago, Noble is aiming to return most of its solid and growing free cash flow to shareholders via both share buybacks (small but steady amounts each month) and dividends (initiated a dividend yielding 2.4% in July, and payouts are likely to grow as free cash flow does).
We’re not income investors, but these moves helped to change perception for the explorers in a big way. We think that could happen with a firm like Noble, too.
Recommended Action: Buy NE.
