Stocks keep rewarding a “Be Bold” investing approach (more on that in a minute), with another late-day rally yesterday. Equities are showing modest gains this morning, too.
Meanwhile, gold and silver are trying to bounce along with crude oil. Treasuries are flattish, while the dollar is lower.
On the news front...
Investors are increasingly focusing on what the Federal Reserve will do with interest rates next month. My expectation is “nothing.” But the question of whether the Fed will “hike, hold, or skip” is an open one, according to Bloomberg. Interest rate futures markets are currently pricing in a 60% chance the Fed stands pat at 5%-5.25%. But probabilities could easily shift between now and the June 13-14 meeting.
Walt Disney Co. (DIS) has shelved plans to build a $900 million office park in Orlando. The company also said it would shutter its expensive Star Wars: Galactic Starcruiser hotel/immersive entertainment venue by October. Disney is trying to cut costs amid a profit slump. Plus, it’s weighing its longer-term plans in Florida amid an aggressive feud over taxation, governance, and social policy with Florida Governor (and soon-to-be presidential candidate) Ron DeSantis.
Now let me shift gears and share MY TAKE on the markets...
For 18 months through the end of 2022, my investment advice was to “Be Boring.” Defensive sectors were working best because of aggressive Federal Reserve rate hikes, the bursting of the SPAC/money-losing tech stock/“junk” IPO bubbles, and rising recession fears. It was only natural – and rational – to position defensively. And that approach notably outperformed.
But at the beginning of THIS year, I changed my tune. I recommended investors ditch the “Be Boring” approach and instead “Be Bold.” In practical terms, that meant shifting to more offensive sectors and doing more “bargain hunting” in beaten-down asset classes. I also recommended sticking with precious metals and equities levered to them because I felt the Fed hiking cycle was nearing an end and that the US dollar’s never-ending rally was...well...ending.
Where do things stand now? The SPDR Gold Shares (GLD) is up about 7% on the year, while the VanEck Gold Miners ETF (GDX) is up 11%. The more-aggressive Invesco QQQ Trust (QQQ) has a nifty total return of 26% year-to-date, while the more-defensive Utilities Select Sector SPDR Fund (XLU) has shed about 5% of its value.
Or in other words, a “Be Bold” approach is paying off. Stick with it!