Stocks are slightly higher in the early going, while most other markets (including gold, silver, oil, and Treasuries) are flattish. The dollar is slightly higher.
On the news front…
Most attention today will be focused on the political arena after former President Donald Trump was indicted by federal authorities. The charges filed in Federal District Court in Miami reportedly relate to his treatment of classified documents after he left office. Trump is set to appear in court later today. He denounced the charges and said “I’m an innocent man” in a video released on his social media platform Truth Social.
Ahead of the Federal Reserve’s June 13-14 policy meeting, a majority of economists polled by Bloomberg expect them to stand pat on interest rates. At the same time, roughly a third of the 46 economists surveyed think the Fed will proceed with a 25 basis point hike at its July meeting.
What about those with actual money on the line? Well, according to the CME Group’s FedWatch Tool, rate futures markets are pricing in only about a 28% chance of a hike next week. The current funds rate target is 5%-5.25%.Meanwhile, venture capital funding has been waning over the past few quarters – and that means more startups are either being forced to shut down or never getting off the ground in the first place. VC deal activity sank to $37 billion in Q1 2023 from $82.4 billion a year earlier, according to the Wall Street Journal. At the same time, investors and founders are hopeful that a renewed interest in technology stocks and a thawing Initial Public Offering market down the road will help their cause later in 2023 and beyond.