(06/21/19) Major Market Ranges for the Week of June 23

Numerous markets have rallied into overbought conditions following this week’s Fed announcement, reports Trevor Smith.

All markets I track are printing prices at extreme weekly and monthly valuations, indicating slowing strength. These extrema include Gann Extensions, DeMark & Camarilla Pivots, as well as volume profile analysis levels. It’s too late to join rallies in markets showing some signs of exhausted highs. I consider it early to initiate a bunch of short trades, merely because prices hit some radically remote horizontal lines on my charts.

My strongest-to-weakest bear candle count rankings are: Japanese yen, crude oil, gold, S&P 500 and the euro. The S&P subtle secret is a down-up-down pattern of bear (and some bull) candles beyond Bollinger Bands in $ADD/$ADVN (4-hour, Daily charts). Joining the market internals bears, daily-chart financials appear to be strategizing with volume-spiked inverted hammers. Thursday the Cboe Volatility Index (VIX) made new highs despite a rally in the S&P 500.

Last week, we identified the long call spread opportunities in crude oil and the euro. The S&P short call spread targets never printed, but similar bear signals to today (Thursday) were present last Thursday forming the basis for my repeated S&P short call spread trade idea. With all these markets making unusual (runaway) higher highs together immediately preceding bearish signs, there may be additional market instability, though that has not been identified by any of my metrics.

Next Week’s Predicted Ranges (Potential Trades)

E-mini S&P 500

High Range 2990-2976; Low Range 2930-2915

Short call spread 2955/60 or Long put spread 2950/45

Japanese Yen

High Range 9435-9404; Low Range —9251-9245

Short call spread 9325/9350

Euro FX

High Range 1.146-1.142; Low Range: 1.134-1.130

Short call spread 1137/1140

Gold

High Range $1423-$1405; Low Range $1382-$1360

Short call spread $1390/95 or Long put spread $1385/90

Crude Oil

High Range $5923-$5760; Low Range $5420-$5320

Short call spread $5700/5750 or Long put spread $5650/5700

Last Week’s Predicted-Versus-Actual Ranges (Friday, June 21); 9/10 touched ranges; 5/5 option trades’ underlying symbols surpassed chosen strikes in winning direction but do not reflect winning trades. Actual wins/losses vary due to option pricing complexities/nuances.

E-mini S&P 500

High Range 2929-2916; Low Range 2869-2850

Actual: 2969-2889

Short call spread 2895/2890, Breakeven-Loss (only 1-point under 2890)

Japanese Yen

High Range 9330-9301; Low Range 9263-9243

Actual: 9401-9260 Long put spread .009300/.009275

Euro FX

High Range 1.137-1.132; Low Range: 1.126-1.125

Actual: 1.141-1.126 Long call spread 1.127/1.130

Gold

High Range $1370-$1357; Low Range $1340-$1335