Major Market Ranges for Week of June 14: Russel Leads

06/12/2020 9:04 am EST

Focus: MARKETS

Trevor Smith

Commodity Trading Advisor, www.trevorsmithfnp.com

Next week’s major market range predictions from Trevor Smith.

Deciphering next week’s stock index price action is the story or fable, while gold prepares pivot breakouts. Bears stay around from in all symbols listed below to move in unison it appears.

The Russel 2000 Index ETF (IWM) printed both higher highs and lower lows this week. So, the Russel 2000, with its Wednesday breakout lows is leading the bears as the earliest mover of the four major stock indexes. As of Thursday noon, its lonely weekly bear engulfing candlestick encompasses the 20- and 50-week moving averages, too.

Index internals continue a multi-week failure to replace their swing highs or to support broad-market rallies. Hence, I recommend charting a three-wave drop with Friday as wave 2 up off the “weekly 50” (50-week moving average) and dropping to 2984-73 monthly pivot support. This bounce-and-drop guess is anticipatory based on protracted, weeks-long timelines for downside traders’ scaling into short-sided positions, as evidenced by market internals.

A one standard deviation move for next week would equal 150 points, and from the current price of 3000, adding or subtracting 75 points (half of that)’is still inclusive of my outlier low target. If I am wrong, supports throw indices up to new highs.

Last week’s “Downside Breakouts” tagline was early for Thursday’s downticks. I was correct that gold exceeded my ranges. Nine of 10 projected weekly ranges printed as of Thursday afternoon with the remaining range of crude’s $35.41 being extremely close to the $35.05 top end of my low range.

Next Week’s Predicted Ranges (Thursday Night)

E-mini S&P 500
High Range 3108-3078; Low Range 2989-2969 (outlier 2939 monthly pivot)
Thursday the ES hit the 50-week moving average support creating possibilities of a wave-2 countertrend Friday bounce to reset for wave 3. Put-side deltas are bear skewed farther from current price.

Japanese Yen
High Range 9451-9411; Low Range 9265-9232
Neutral-bullish range. Monthly chart hammer candle series on the 20- and 50-month averages

Euro FX
High Range 1.146-1.141; Low Range 1.125-1.119
Neutral-bearish weekly range; 50-week and 200-month moving average resistance.
Monthly bull kicker candlestick on the 20-month average. Consider four-month Long trade.

Gold
High Range $1,784-$1,757; Low Range $1,711-$1,694
Neutral-bearish range. Friday to Monday trending break, maybe downside Monday due to bear candles on most intraday time frames.
Crude Oil

High Range $38.91-$37.74; Low Range $35.05-$33.30
Quarterly bullish candle so far; bearish divergence daily chart.

Last Week’s Predicted Ranges (Thursday Night)

E-mini S&P 500
High Range 3169-3142; Low Range 3032-3004
VIX bullish candlestick is on pivot supports; trending math Fri-Wed. Strategy: join it
Actual: 3231-2996

Japanese Yen
High Range 9250-9228; Low Range 9138-9122
Neutral range
Actual: 9383-9116

Euro FX
High Range 1.143-1.137; Low Range 1.124-1.118
Neutral range. My “Bullish to 1.138” statement returns. Monthly bullish candlestick. Consider four-month Long trade
Actual: 1.142-1.124

Gold
High Range $1,748-$1,735; Low Range $1,696-$1,683
Neutral range. Breakout math. Range block/rectangle buildout on weekly-chart. Join trends.
Actual: $1754-$1680

Crude Oil
High Range $39.63-$38.03; Low Range $35.09-$33.53
Quarterly bullish candle so far; bearish divergence daily chart
Actual: $4044-$3541
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Trevor Smith is a technical market analyst/forecaster who is registered as a Commodity Trading Advisor. Trevor holds four academic degrees across several disciplines and has published works in: Nashville Lifestyles Magazine, The Colorado Daily, The Tennessean/USA Today, Vitamin Retailer, and other media. You can view “Trevor’s Trading” here.

Note: Range calculations this week were made Wednesday evening. Nothing herein shall be construed to be specific financial advice. While reflecting my best good-faith efforts to forecast markets, no guarantees of accuracy are made from my range statistics, aggregate statistics, frequentist interpretations, and pivot math from hand calculations. I am a registered newsletter CTA, and all required disclaimers apply. Trade at your own risk with money you could discard/not miss.

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