The rise in growth has been matched in 2018 with rising in oil but that relationship to forex has faltered – Australian dollar (AUD) and Canadian dollar (CAD) lead losses in G7 currencies against the USD today while Swiss franc (CHF) is the leader, writes Bob Savage.
Trading today is the same old story with geopolitical and policy concerns dominating markets – UK returns from holiday and worries about Brexit – UK Foreign Secretary Boris calls May’s customs plan crazy.
Italy is obsessed with risks for a new election since the last one leaves no one in charge – 5-Star calls for July elections instead of supporting a technical government.
Sweden Riksbank minutes sound hawkish – one member pushed a September hike, euro/Swedish krona (EUR/SEK) snaps back to 2-week highs for SEK.
Trump tweets still rule geopolitics and we are all waiting for his Iran nuclear accord withdrawal. The GOP primaries for the mid-term elections are today and splinters in the Republican Party will become more obvious.
FOMC Chair Powell at the SNB said nothing about monetary policy other than skirting blame for any EM crisis due to his rate hikes. The push for a May NAFTA deal continues but has plenty of thorny issues yet resolved like Mexican wages.
Hopes for more talks with China on trade rose with Vice Premier Liu going to Washington.
What is lost overnight trading is economic data with German industrial production better along with China trade as both imports and exports rise, suggesting the global coordinate growth story remains intact. Also note that the EM world remains on edge and in trouble while China looks stable if not better than most expected. Trouble shows up in the consumers globally as higher prices are stinging – note the weakness in Japan household spending driving expectations for a 1Q GDP slowdown.
Retail sales missed in Australia as well. This leaves the same old confusion as February back in play as positions drive technicals from here.
We are all oil traders today with the USD and rates the tail for noise.
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