Bill Baruch, president and founder of Blue Line Futures, previews E-mini S&P, Gold, Crude, and Treasury markets and today’s economic report calendar. Follow his reports Monday-Friday on MoneyShow.com and short Midday Markets video.

Bill Baruch’s Midday Market Minute short video for Sept. 24 here.
What to expect heading into the Fed on Wednesday.

 

E-mini S&P (December)

Last week’s close: Settled at 2933.75, down 5.75 on Friday and up 22.25 on the week.

Fundamentals: The S&P (SPX) finished Friday’s quadruple witching session about 0.5% from the latest record high of 2947. All major U.S. benchmarks opened lower Sunday night ahead of the latest round of tariffs between the U.S and China going into effect and as talks between the two nations have deteriorated further.

At 12:00 am EDT, Washington imposed a 10% levy on $200 billion worth of Chinese goods and China retaliated with $60 billion on U.S goods. Though these were very much expected, the market had been eyeing a fresh round of talks between the two as early as this week. However, China called off any further negotiations saying this morning that, “there must be mutual respect” and they will not come to the table while President Trump threatens the next wave.

With the U.S and China now deadlocked, Washington may look to push harder on the NAFTA front this week; developments on trade will be critical.

There is no major U.S data today but we look to the Chicago Fed National Activity Index. The Fed begins their two-day policy meeting tomorrow and we discussed our expectations on Sunday’s Tradable Events this Week, contact us if you did not receive this yesterday: info@bluelinefutures.com.

Technicals: The S&P set a record high trading to 2947 on Friday. We said here Friday morning that if the tape is holding above 2941.75 to look for a test to first key resistance early in the session; this is exactly what happened before the tape softened. Furthermore, we said a move below 2937.50 would open the door to major three-star support at ...

 

Crude Oil (November)

Last week’s close: Settled at 70.78, up 0.46 on Friday and up 2.01 on the week.

Fundamentals: Crude Oil is off to a healthy start to the week after the OPEC and non-OPEC alliance left production levels unchanged at their meeting yesterday. They emphasized that their goal is to bring on the 1 mbpd they promised in June and they are halfway there. Last week, after it was reported several OPEC officials said they would not add production at this meeting, President Trump took to Twitter to put pressure on the alliance to act.

On Friday, it was speculated that they could add as much as 500,000 bpd and price action whipsawed. However, with nothing added, Crude Oil has gained more than 2% to a high of 72.39 before settling in. Though Iranian supply is coming off the market, Saudi Arabia said they have not added more production because it’s simply not needed. Furthermore, the alliance released data projecting demand growth to taper off through 2019 and commented that it is “highly unlikely” they will add production next year.

Technicals: We have been Bullish in Bias and we remain Bullish in Bias. After trading to a high of 71.80 on Friday, price action failed to secure a settlement out above major three-star resistance. Into this morning we have seen a clear breakout above here, but we still must see a close above ... 

 

Gold (December)

Last week’s close: Settled at 1201.3, down 10.0 on Friday and up 0.2 on the week.

Fundamentals: On the bright side, U.S and China trade relations are arguably at their worst point yet and Gold is clinking to the psychological $1200 mark. The U.S. dollar (USD) has strengthened against the Chinese yuan (CNY) this morning after the yuan failed to gain above the 50-day moving average earlier on the session. On Friday it was dollar strength that slapped Gold down after a speech from U.K Prime Minister May and Brexit hopes began to sour.

Reuters: Canada's Barrick Gold to buy Randgold Resources in $18.3 billion deal Monday.

However, both the euro (EUR) and British pound (GPB) are stronger this morning and being led by better than expected German Business Climate data as we look to a speech from ECB President Mario Draghi at 9:00 am EDT. There is no major U.S data today. Tomorrow brings Consumer Confidence and the Fed begins a two-day policy meeting.

Technicals: Strong waves of selling on Friday have not soured our outlook on Gold as it has technically held ground very well and battled at not only the psychological $1200 mark but our 1204 pivot level. A close above ... 

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View a short video: Bill Baruch: Trading Futures. Gold, USD, yuan.

Recorded: TradersExpo Chicago July 24, 2018.
Duration: 4:34.