Major Market Ranges for Week of August 9: Back-to-School Breakouts

08/07/2020 9:06 am EST

Focus: MARKETS

Trevor Smith

Commodity Trading Advisor, www.trevorsmithfnp.com

World markets rally despite bearish consumer spending numbers, writes Trevor Smith.

The Van Eck Rare Earth Elements ETF (REMX) broke higher, after entering my projected low range. Last week’s unusual options activity with large volume out to Feb.  2021 bears watching.
Other symbols printing highs with bearish candlesticks are the Financial Select Sector SPDR Fund (XLF), the Consumer Staples Select Sector SPDR Fund (XLP) and gold. As we exit the dog days of Summer, approaching agricultural harvest times, agricultural commodity prices will be important. Watch drought news in the American Midwest, as well as continued consumer food choice news.

Last week’s article correctly predicted the Japanese yen and Rare Earth Elements pullbacks, but Gold’s pullback was hardly tradeable. Nine of 12 ranges printed as of Thursday with other ranges extremely close.

Next Week’s Predicted Ranges (Thursday Night)

E-mini S&P 500
High Range 3359-3339; Low Range 3270-3256 (outlier 3122)
Expecting wide-range move from pivots breakout. Slight bear skew in range extrema.

Japanese Yen
High Range 9550-9509; Low Range 9431-9400
Bearish range due to wave-3 drop potential, trending pivots.

Euro FX
High Range 1.196-1.193; Low Range 1.178-1.175
Bearish weekly ranges: Monthly chart bull candle encompasses 20-,50-, and 80-month averages.

Gold
High Range $2,123-$2,099; Low Range $,2029-$2,013
Neutral-bearish range based on parabolic move out of value & over Bollinger bands. Seasonal & dip buyers present may raise weekly lows.

Crude Oil
High Range $44.10-43.23; Low Range $40.83-40.38
Neutral-bearish extension range based on candlesticks, resistances. Q3-4 bullish targets at $51 for Fall.

REMX (Van Eck Rare Earth Elements ETF)
High Range High Range $45.54-45.05; Low Range $41.80-40.72
Bearish-range due to daily chart. Bull into 2021.

Last Week’s Predicted Ranges (Thursday Night)

E-mini S&P 500
High Range 3287-3257; Low Range 3206-3186 (outlier 3122)
Neutral-bearish range due to weekly chart inverted hammer & internals. Daily chart bullish into early next week. Short monthly call spread lightly; bullish.
Actual: 3329-3212

Japanese Yen
High Range 9578-9530; Low Range 9491-9444
Neutral-bearish range due to two-day chart sell signal that’s missing momentum support for the bear trade.
Actual: 9602-9396

Euro FX
High Range 1.194-1.188; Low Range 1.175-1.168
Bullish weekly range: monthly chart bull candle encompasses 20-,50-, & 80-month averages.
Actual: 1.192-1.170

Gold
High Range $1,999-$1,984; Low Range $1,931-$1,914
Bearish range based on two-day chart candlestick signals. Expecting stops run into highs as next move.  Sell call spreads due to sideways pivots despite low volatility to add time decay profit angle. Bearish range based on two-day chart candlestick signals. Expecting stops run into highs as next move.
Actual: $2081-1971

Crude Oil
High Range $41.14-40.33; Low Range $39.33-38.46
Neutral-bearish extension range based on option chain. Q3-4 bullish targets at $51 for Fall.
Actual: $4352-3966

REMX (Van Eck Rare Earth Elements ETF)
High Range $41.04-40.80; Low Range $39.94-39.47
Bearish-range due to daily chart candlestick. Multi-week/month/year pivot-based bullish major reversal breakout setup; demand from many uses (LED lights, sensors, medical & nanotechnology, nuclear energy); unusual Feb 2021 options activity at seemingly-ridiculous $49 overhead strike price for Feb. 2021
Actual: $44.29-39.90

Trevor Smith is a technical market analyst/forecaster who is registered as a Commodity Trading Advisor. Trevor holds four academic degrees across several disciplines and has published works in: Nashville Lifestyles Magazine, The Colorado Daily, The Tennessean/USA Today, Vitamin Retailer, and other media. You can view “Trevor’s Trading” here.

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