Currencies Breakout as More Bears Enter

Currencies and indices remain in trending-breakout mode for the next two weeks, reports Trevor Smith of Trevor's Trading.

Japanese yen futures have trending range and monthly pivot math for the rest of January 2021, and breakout setup conditions exist on several time frames both in pivot math and by inside range setups. Directional tendency should be bearish by technical analysis of the higher time frames, but the euro is on quarterly pivot support and could bounce here before testing lower levels.

World indices have moderately trending pivots/ranges—slightly softer than last week's strength. Bears' presence has created some doji breakdown candles/trade setups with confirmatory momentum studies on higher time frames. S&P futures are on the 20-day moving average support presently. Time pivots for my aforementioned "Wild Swings" exist in/beyond the coming week as brief pricing down spike probabilities from February to April.

Bearish technical conditions are also emerging in crude oil on higher time frame charts. Crude is also in sideways yearly pivot math that should create a reversal trader's dream from Q2-Q4.  

In conclusion, 2021's overriding sideways pivot math that may exert itself more after April and May is in effect now and does support short-call-spread bear trades instead of straight put purchases; the reason is that prices may not fall as deeply as required for puts to be profitable. Introducing time-decay components creates a more price-forgiving overall trade should prices drop only slightly. Bear countertrade participants can wait to buy lower prices strategically during sporadic price drops in Q1, Q2.

My article on January 2 predicted the ensuing trending bear trade setups that are still playing out in world markets through both currencies and various indices. Prices are still striking through my lower targets from the last article, as markets prepare to enter sideways reversal trading May-December after Q1-Q2 trending attempts weaken. 9 of 10 projected ranges printed as of Saturday, January 17, 2021. 

Next Two Week’s Predicted Ranges (Written Saturday Night, January 17, 2021)

E-mini S&P 500
High Range 3797-3763; Low Range 3723-3703
Bullish and bearish range/unfulfilled lower targets. January pivot already printed. Quarterly Pivot (Q1): 3575, Yearly Pivot: 3225

Japanese Yen
High Range 9675-9655; Low Range 9615-9600
Expanded ranges due to trending mathematic conditions, multiperiod ranges. Prices may exceed my ranges in current trending math. 9656 is the January monthly pivot that has already printed. Yearly pivot .009498

Euro FX
High Range 1.225-.1.218; Low Range 1.207-1.201
Neutral-bearish ranges, 50-day & 500-week moving average supports at current price; monthly pivot already printed at the 1.216 level. Yearly pivot: 1.174

Gold
High Range $1865-$1948; Low Range $1812-1801 
Moderate ranges in sideways character, bullish technical supports (50-week moving average at $1803). Quarterly pivot: $1876 already printed. Yearly pivot: $1813 already printed. 

Crude Oil
High Range $5389-5251; Low Range $5097-4910
Bearish, range with sideways character; considering short call spread trade at technical resistances. Yearly pivot: $40.19

Prior Predicted Ranges (Written Saturday, January 2 for January 2-15, 2021)

E-mini S&P 500
High Range 3783-3763; Low Range 3715-3695
Bullish then trending bearish opinion due to understudy divergence/unfulfilled lower targets. January pivot: 3699 already printed, Quarterly pivot (Q1): 3575, Yearly pivot: 3225
Actual: 3824-3652

Japanese Yen
High Range 9740-9710; Low Range 9640-9590
Expanded ranges due to trending mathematic conditions. Prices may exceed my ranges in current context of trending math. 9656 is the January monthly pivot as a fair-value median point in my projected ranges. Yearly pivot .009498
Actual: 9754-9613

Euro FX
High Range 1.237-1.228; Low Range 1.209-1.203
Neutral-bearish ranges in trending trading; bear candles, negative divergences may pull price down to the Monthly pivot at the 1.216 level. Yearly pivot: 1.174
Actual: 1.236-1.208

Gold
High Range $1928-$1915; Low Range $1885-1868 
Moderate ranges in sideways character, although its narrow two-day range may increase the two-week range, causing me to make each range wider than I would have done. Quarterly pivot: $1876 & embedded in low projections above; Yearly pivot: $1813
Actual: $1962-1817

Crude Oil
High Range $4863-4724; Low Range $4510-4364
Neutral-bearish directional range with trending character; overhead technical resistances persist. Yearly pivot: $40.19
Actual: $53.93-47.18

Trevor Smith is a technical market analyst/forecaster who is registered as a Commodity Trading Advisor. You can view Trevor’s Trading here.