Conditions Conducive for Bears

Bearish technical conditions exist in indices, metals, crude oil; sideways pivot math softens price drops, reports Trevor Smith of Trevor's Trading.

Market internals and the CBOE Volatility Index (VIX) futures show some bullishness, especially in the NASDAQ index in the context of broad-market bearish charts. Indices can be directionally mixed in the next two weeks.

In mid-2020 articles, I mentioned geopolitical conflicts as I began expecting a February 2021 military conflict in an icy, cold place such as, but not limited to, India-China to worsen throughout summer 2021. I try to predict markets—not world news events. So, I then observed heavy options activity for late fall 2020-February 2021 (lunar calendar new year) expirations in Van Eck Vectors Trust Rare Earth ETF (REMX) whose price was in the $40s/share when I estimated highs ($60s) for February 2021.

The ETF covers uranium, device screens, space, and military technology. REMX is now a red, bear engulfing candlestick on strong chart highs ($80s). Food-related commodities are also on bearish highs, a sign of increased competition for food that historically was an indicator of reduced peace. Peace is my sincere prayer for the world/humanity, but traders can now research bearish trades in options on food commodities (wheat charts weaker than corn), indices, etc.   

My last article headline, Currencies Breakout as Bears Enter, on January 17 correctly predicted the ensuing currency throwbacks. Additionally, the "doji breakdown candles/trade setups" I mentioned preceded some price drops in world markets/indices. 9 of 10 projected ranges printed as of Saturday, January 30, 2021. 

Next Two Week’s Predicted Ranges (Written Saturday Night, January 30, 2021)

E-mini S&P 500
High Range 3750-3732; Low Range 3663-3645
Bullish and bearish indications. Quarterly Pivot (Q1): 3575, Yearly Pivot: 3225

Japanese Yen
High Range 9634-9588; Low Range 9525-9498
Moderately bearish ranges from trending mathematic conditions. Prices may exceed my ranges in current trending math. Yearly pivot .009498

Euro FX
High Range 1.224-1.220; Low Range 1.205-1.201
Neutral-bearish ranges with bullish bounce off 50-day moving average likely; continued trending breakout math. Yearly pivot: 1.174

Gold
High Range $1870-$1858; Low Range $1823-1808 
Slightly bearish ranges in trending, narrow-range breakout character, bearish candlesticks. Quarterly pivot: $1876 already printed. Yearly pivot: $1813 already printed. 

Crude Oil
High Range $5375-5295; Low Range $5101-4960
Bearish, range with sideways character; in short Iron Condor trade with $51 a midpoint target. Yearly pivot: $40.19

Prior Predicted Ranges (Written Saturday, January 16 for January 17-30, 2021)

E-mini S&P 500
High Range 3797-3763; Low Range 3723-3703
Bullish and bearish range/unfulfilled lower targets. January pivot already printed. Quarterly Pivot (Q1): 3575, Yearly Pivot: 3225
Actual: 3862-3685 

Japanese Yen
High Range 9675-9655; Low Range 9615-9600
Expanded ranges due to trending mathematic conditions, multiperiod ranges. Prices may exceed my ranges in current trending math. 9656 is the January monthly pivot that has already printed. Yearly pivot .009498
Actual: 9682-9532

Euro FX
High Range 1.225-.1.218; Low Range 1.207-1.201
Neutral-bearish ranges, 50-day & 500-week moving average supports at current price; monthly pivot already printed at the 1.216 level. Yearly pivot: 1.174
Actual: 1.221-1.206

Gold
High Range $1865-$1948; Low Range $1812-1801 
Moderate ranges in sideways character, bullish technical supports (50-week moving average at $1803). Quarterly pivot: $1876 already printed. Yearly pivot: $1813 already printed. 
Actual: $1878-1800

Crude Oil
High Range $5389-5251; Low Range $5097-4910
Bearish, range with sideways character; considering short call spread trade at technical resistances. Yearly pivot: $40.19
Actual: $5383-5144

Trevor Smith is a technical market analyst/forecaster who is registered as a Commodity Trading Advisor. You can view Trevor’s Trading here.