Many markets are on technical support levels, but “who really knows how this story goes?”, writes Trevor Smith of Trevor's Trading.
Traders are now working the bid sides of markets that are technically perceived as oversold. No guarantee exists that selling ends at any price level, however. Many economic news issues persist; inflation, supply chains, and political fiscal debates comprise only a portion of the problem list.
My last article mentioned space weather dates for bearish market sentiment being September “21-22,” an “outlier target of 4421,” and S&P futures’ Yearly Pivot of 3225 that was almost touched when 3295 printed. September 20 bear trading appeared a day earlier than my estimate. I wrote this about crude oil before it broke higher, invalidating some of my projected low numbers by $0.56 cents: “Price is on moving averages in breakout mode that looks bullish.” Thus, 7 of 10 projected ranges printed as of September 30, 2021.
Next Two Weeks' Predicted Ranges (Written September 30, 2021)
E-mini S&P 500
High Range 4427-4401; Low Range 4300-4269
Bullish-skewed range. Space weather dates for bearish sentiment may be near October 6-7, and the 12, and an outlier target is 4541, a monthly Camarilla pivot. Yearly Pivot: 3225;
Bitcoin
High Range 50314-48560; Low Range 43925-42191
Bearish ranges overall after this bounce. See monthly chart.
Euro FX
High Range 1.170-1.167; Low Range 1.159-1.115
Bullish-neutral ranges on moving average supports.
Gold
High Range $1779-$1767; Low Range $1742-1730
Neutral-bullish ranges.
Crude Oil
High Range $77.51-76.36; Low Range $73.67-72.75
Wide ranges. Range expansion expected. An attempt by the monthly-chart bear candle to reach the yearly pivot: $40.19, as a sudden, sharp news-sparked price thrust down to $54-$46 Fibonacci 50% level that quickly recovers is possible.
Prior Predicted Ranges (Written September 11 for September 11-30, 2021)
E-mini S&P 500
High Range 4511-4495; Low Range 4441-4421
Slightly bear-skewed range. Space weather dates for bearish sentiment may be near the middle of the month, the 21st-22nd, and an outlier target is the 50-day moving average at 4421. Yearly Pivot: 3225;
Bitcoin
High Range 49400-47033; Low Range 43400-42355
Bearish ranges overall; expect a Camarilla pivot bounce mid-month or so.
Euro FX
High Range 1.192-1.188; Low Range 1.179-1.176
Neutral ranges in trending pivots likely to be exceeded upon range breakouts and joinable.
Gold
High Range $1820-$1805; Low Range $1778-1767
Neutral ranges.
Crude Oil
High Range $7185-7066 Low Range $6886-6755
Bullish short-term ranges. An attempt by the monthly-chart bear candle to reach the yearly pivot: $40.19, as a sudden, sharp news-sparked price thrust down to $54-$46 that quickly recovers is possible. Price is on moving averages in breakout mode that looks bullish
Trevor Smith is a technical market analyst/forecaster who is registered as a Commodity Trading Advisor. You can view Trevor’s Trading here.
