Only a few short days into 2021, I shared one of my most important forecasts ever, recalls Mike Larson, editor of Safe Money Report.
President Biden had just been confirmed the winner of the election, while the Democratic party had just taken control of Congress thanks to the Georgia runoff vote.
My advice? Get ready for “enormous sums of cheap, easy money—oceans” to hit the markets, adding:
“It’ll be a ‘money flood’ unlike anything we’ve seen in recorded history. From the Federal Reserve. From Congress. From every corner of Washington.”
Would it eventually come with a high cost—for both our country and the capital markets? Absolutely. Would it also make sense to ride the rising tide for maximum profits in the meantime? Also, absolutely.
Sure enough, stocks are on fire. September’s S&P 500 correction is fading fast, and the SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust (SPY) is now sporting year-to-date returns of around 26%. Many “Safe Money”-style stocks that pay generous yields and earn high Weiss Ratings are doing even better.
And of course, part of the “money flood” environment is that interest rates remain pathetic...especially relative to inflation.
What might change the game?
Fiscal discipline in DC, a truly tighter monetary policy. An enormous, euphoric, powerful, “blow off” high in asset markets, akin to what we saw in late 1999-early 2000.
Those are all things I’m watching for. But they’re all things that seem fanciful for now, too.
First, Biden just got his $1 trillion infrastructure spending bill through Congress. That means money for everything from roads and bridges to electric vehicle charging stations and broadband internet pipelines will be forthcoming from DC soon.
Second, the Federal Reserve just announced the start of its bond-buying “taper”...but reinforced the market’s view that rate increases won’t follow for many, many months. That means the inflation-adjusted funds rate won’t flip positive, signaling tighter money, for approximately forever and a day.
Third, the markets are rising...but I’m still not seeing the kind of wildly euphoric moves that signal we’ve reached the rally’s blow-off stage. Remember: In the last full year of the tech bubble (1999), the Nasdaq Composite Index soared 86%!
So, my advice remains the same. Ride the rising tide while it lasts. But do it using safe strategies. Because when the money flood ebbs, you don’t want to be stuck holding the bag!
Safe Money Report focuses on these kinds of stocks, which include names in the consumer staples, food and beverage, retail, and healthcare sectors. Visit Safe Money Report here.