Can or will lightning strike twice? Will Amazon (AMZN) earnings disappoint tonight, sending it and sympathetic Nasdaq tech names further south in the wake of the FB debacle, observes Michael Paulenoff of MPTrader.
Starting with the technical on Facebook (FB), unless the stock can claw its way back above the initial bounce attempt at 263 and continue above 277-280, my near-term pattern work and intermediate-term momentum work argue for another bout of weakness that projects into the 233-235 target zone to complete the downleg from yesterday's pre-EPS high at 332.35.
As for Amazon, if the technical setup is telling me anything about the nearest-term price path, then AMZN needs to contain current weakness in and around 2800; because if 2800 is breached, it will leave AMZN vulnerable to a press to fully restart its 1/24/22 low at 2707.
Should such a scenario unfold, I will be expecting AMZN to violate 2707 to create a potentially significant glaring positive momentum divergence ahead of a ripper of a recovery rally off of either 2660/2680 or from a worst case decline (in the event of a very negative reaction to earnings) into the 2500-2550 target zone.
The big question is whether or not AMZN will preserve 2800-2808 ahead of tonight's earnings, or initiate the process of completing its November-Februrary downleg into the 2707-2660/80-2500/50 target zones?
My sense is as long as AMZN's weakness is contained in and around 2800, it will recover towards 2900 before earnings are released after today's close. At that point, its all in the hands of the Earnings Gods.
Mike Paulenoff is co-founder of MPTrader.com, a live Trading Room featuring his analysis of equity indices, commodities, cryptocurrencies, and trending stocks and ETFs.