As I write, the battle for Kyiv has begun, states Ian Murphy of

Russian troops have been spotted in the suburbs of the Ukrainian capital and all men of fighting age have been barred from leaving the country.

Commodities, equities, and bonds endured another volatile session yesterday as investors and traders try to interpret Mr. Putin’s intentions and assess the implications of the conflict. US equity markets bounced after President Biden announced sanctions on Russian interests, which were less severe than expected.

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If today’s price action on the S&P 500 (SPX) follows through on yesterday’s bounce, the Help strategy may trigger this afternoon. Watch for monthly new lows to fall below 600. This will bring the Pessimism indicator back into the Help channel. Once that is in place, price and the COBE SPX Volatility Index (VIX) also need to play along.

Learn More about Ian Murphy at