Navigating From Nonfarm to CPI

E-mini S&P and E-mini NQ futures, along with stocks broadly, sold off sharply in the final two hours Friday, states Bill Baruch of BlueLineFutures.com.

E-mini S&P (September) / E-mini NQ (September)

S&P, last week’s close: Settled at 4434.00, down 13.00 on Friday and 54.50 on the week
NQ, last week’s close: Settled at 15,181.75, down 56.25 on Friday and 155.25 on the week.

After the session unfolded with strength into the afternoon, and indices traded sharply out above their Nonfarm Payrolls release whipsaw ranges, rarely, Friday does not hold as a trend day. This was not the case and E-mini S&P futures closed 1% off session highs, before trading to the lowest since June 29. Price action is stabilizing back to unchanged this morning, ahead of a deluge of Fed speak, beginning with Fed Vice Chair for Supervision Barr speaking at 9:00 am CT. He will be followed by San Francisco Fed President Daly at 9:30 am CT, Cleveland Fed President Mester at 10:00 am CT, and Atlanta Fed President Bostic at 11:00 am CT; all are 2024 voters but do not vote this year. Also, keep an ear to the ground for additional comments from other members.

Stronger than expected Building Permits data out of Canada this morning have seemed to reinvigorate weakness across the Treasury space (higher yields) and a stronger US Dollar. We now look to Wholesale Inventories in the US at 9:00 am CT and Consumer Inflation Expectations at 10:00 am. On Wednesday, all eyes will be on the June CPI report.

Our Pivot and point of balance will be most crucial in the session, a pocket for the E-mini S&P that has been recurring, and slightly adjusted at 4431.75-4437. For the E-mini NQ, this is 15,172-15,192. We will look to our first waves of resistance and support of the E-mini S&P to define the current range, where a break outside intraday could garner a more directional move into Wednesday’s CPI.

Bias: Neutral/Bullish

Resistance: 4450.75-4454***, 4458.75**, 4465**, 4471-4476***, 4483.75***, 4488.25-4493.75***, 4498-4500***

Pivot: 4431.75-4437
            
Support: 4417.50-4419.50***, 4407.25-4409.75***, 4399.25-4401.50***, 4368.50-4371.50***

NQ (Sept)

Resistance: 15,250-15,276***, 15,309-15,314**, 15,337-15,374***, 15,475-15,500***

Pivot: 15,172-15,191
    
Support: 15,100-15,139**, 15,063*, 15,025-15,037***, 14,963-14,986**, 14,856-14,898****

Crude Oil (August)

Yesterday’s close: Settled at 73.86, up 2.06 on Friday and 3.22 on the week

Crude Oil futures finished the week with a bang, gaining 2.87% on Friday, matching the 2.87% move on July fifth, the best since June 15. The coordinated cuts between Saudi Arabia and Russia have certainly underpinned the strength to start the month but added tailwinds came on reports Friday the White House plans to buy another six mbpd to refill the SPR. However, weaker-than-expected inflation data from China last night will lead into tomorrow morning’s New Loans data, due at 3:00 am CT.

Price action is out above 72.97, the 50% retracement on August futures from the May low back to the April high. Furthermore, Crude Oil cleared the 72.43-72.65 ceiling. Both of these levels will act as support in helping to define a bull leg higher. Still, strong resistance stands above $74 and is detailed in our levels below.

Bias: Neutral/Bullish

Resistance: 73.86-74.00**, 74.29-74.65**, 75.10-75.16***, 75.70**

Pivot: 73.29-73.37
                   
Support: 72.97**, 72.43-72.65***, 71.80**, 71.19-71.34***, 70.98**, 69.93-70.33***

Gold (August) / Silver (September)

Gold, yesterday’s close: Settled at 1932.5, up 17.1 on Friday and 3.1 on the week
Silver, yesterday’s close: Settled 23.289, up 0.399 on Friday and 0.269 on the week

Gold and Silver futures remain very choppy while trying to consolidate at critical long-term levels of support. Friday’s Nonfarm Payroll report highlighted less than half the jobs ADP said on Thursday, at 209k versus 497k, and reduced the prior two months by 110k jobs. It is a shame the market can give so much credence to a private report that has no history of being in line with official jobs data. As we look ahead, inflation data from China last night disappointed again and opened the door to fresh selling across the metals complex. This leads to China’s New Loans data due overnight at 3:00 am CT. As for today, we noted the lineup of Fed speakers in the S&P/NQ section, and their comments will be pivotal as we gear up for the June CPI report Wednesday. This morning, we look to Wholesale Inventories in the US at 9:00 am CT and Consumer Inflation Expectations at 10:00 am.

Gold futures must battle and hold the rally point from when Nonfarm Payrolls was released, major three-star support at 1917.7-1919.9, to have some construction on the session. Similarly, Silver must hold the 22.89-22.97 pocket. Regardless, there is tremendous overhead damage, and selling on rally attempts last week kept both Gold and Silver capped at the resistance levels highlighted in the levels below. Ultimately, Gold must close out above rare major four-star resistance at 1949-1949.6 to begin repairing that damage.

Bias: Neutral/Bullish

Resistance: 1929.71931.2**, 1933.9-1934.9**, 1938-1943.4***, 1949-1949.6****

Pivot: 1925.4

Support: 1917.7-1919.9***, 19.14.1-1915.4*, 1906.2-1911.6***, 1900.6-1902.3**

Silver (September)

Resistance: 23.28-23.37***, 23.45-23.54***, 23.98***

Pivot: 23.11-23.13
                   
Support: 22.89-22.97**, 22.72-22.82***, 22.48-22.54***, 22.05-22.40****

Learn more about Bill Baruch at Blue Line Futures.