The Federal Reserve raised rates yesterday by 25bps as expected, states Bill Baruch of

E-mini S&P (September) / E-mini NQ (September)

S&P, yesterday’s close: Settled at 4595.25, down 0.75

NQ, yesterday’s close: Settled at 15,610.75, down 62.25

Fed Chair Powell controlled the press conference perfectly, reiterating the committee’s data dependence going forward. He added that some committee members do see rate cuts as early as next year. However, for now, the CME Fed Watch Tool signals a 20% probability the Fed will hike rates by 25bps at its next meeting on September 20.

Following the Fed, E-mini S&P and E-mini NQ futures closed quietly within a sizable range before META crushed earnings estimates with 11% y/y revenue growth and increased guidance. The announcement lifted indices, carrying them higher overnight and into today’s deluge of news. The ECB announced a policy decision at 7:15 am CT and hiked rates by 25bps. From the US, the first look at Q2 GDP was due at 7:30 am CT, along with weekly Initial Jobless Claims, and Durable Goods. Pending Home Sales were due at 9:00 am CT, and the Treasury will auction $35 billion seven-year Notes at noon CT.

We continue to hold our more Bullish Bias as E-mini S&P futures have broken out above major three-star resistance at 4606-4609.25, though we want to see this secured on the weekly close tomorrow. We have had key resistance at 4625.50-4631, which price action is testing into this morning. The E-mini NQ has cleared its hurdle at the 15,710-15,739 mark, which now stands as major three-star support. However, strong resistance is aligning with the opening bell rang the morning after Tesla (TSLA) reported and the gap from the close before TSLA earnings. To the downside, we have rare major four-star support in each at yesterday’s settlement, as it could be devastating to the rally if these levels were surrendered.

Bias: Bullish/Neutral

Resistance: 4625.50-4631, 4554.75, 4667.75-4671.75

Support: 4606-4609.25, 4595.25, 4585, 4573.75-4579.50, 4560.50-4565.75

NQ (Sept)

Resistance: 15,856-15,895, 15,959-16,009

Pivot: 15,785

Support: 15,710-15,739, 15,646, 15,610, 15,558-15,566, 15,519, 15,444-15,475

Crude Oil (September)

Yesterday’s close: Settled at 78.78, down 0.85

Crude Oil futures are again eyeing the $80 mark. Despite a somewhat bearish inventory report yesterday, where draws were smaller across the board and highlighted by -11.09 mb of Net Imports w/w, price action is on the rebound today after reports that Saudi Arabia and Russia may look to further production cuts to underpin prices.

Yesterday’s weakness in Crude Oil futures held out above first key support and battled at our Pivot and point of balance in an extremely constructive manner, setting the tape up for today’s rebound. Continued price action above our new Pivot and point of balance at 79.14-79.28 will keep momentum in the hands of the bulls.

Bias: Bullish/Neutral

Resistance: 79.63-79.90, 80.39-80.70, 82.52-82.71

Pivot: 79.14-79.28

Support: 78.55-78.78, 78.14-78.32, 77.07-77.37

Gold (December) / Silver (September)

Gold, yesterday’s close: Settled at 2009.5, up 6.7

Silver, yesterday’s close: Settled at 24.97, up 0.146

December Gold is now the front month. Gold and Silver futures climbed higher in the Fed aftermath and through the overnight. However, Gold futures are retreating a bit from an overnight peak of 2022.1, while Silver is holding out above the previous major three-star resistance, now our Pivot and point of balance at 25.07-25.11. Similarly, Gold is now battling at its Pivot and point of balance in 2012. These levels must hold in order to keep feeding bullish momentum for a decisive breakout. 

Bias: Neutral/Bullish

Resistance: 2019.6, 2027-2028.6, 2034.5, 2038.9-2043.2, 2056.9

Pivot: 2012

Support: 2001-2002.8, 1994.5-1995.1, 1990.6, 1983.9-1987.9, 1973.3-1975.8

Silver (September)

Resistance: 25.23-25.30, 25.46-25.53, 25.76-25.88

Pivot: 25.07-25.11

Support: 24.97, 24.82-24.87, 24.65-24.69, 24.51-24.58, 24.27-24.39

Learn more about Bill Baruch at Blue Line Futures.