E-mini S&P and E-mini NQ futures finished last week on the back foot, though paring the worst of Friday’s session, states Bill Baruch of BlueLineFutures.com.

E-mini S&P (September) / E-mini NQ (September)

S&P, last week’s close: Settled at 4480.75, down 5.00 on Friday and 17.25 on the week

NQ, yesterday’s close: Settled at 15,095.75, down 105.50 on Friday and 258.25 on the week

We predicted a pullback could start as early as August, but it is disappointing to see the failed rally attempts in the back half of last week amid economic data that should support buoyancy. On Thursday, CPI was softer than expected, Friday morning’s PPI was hotter but the components somewhat goldilocks, and then Michigan Consumer data for August saw one-year inflation expectations slip to 3.3%, versus 3.8% expected and down from 3.4% in July. It continues to be bond weakness, amid a mounting fiscal deficit, as well as the Chinese yuan and Japanese yen, just sucking the life from risk assets.

The overnight rip from the lows came on reports the Chinese property company, Country Garden, was going to secure a bond payment extension, but those rumors were denied and correlated with weakness around 7:00 am CT.

Today, we look to NY Fed Consumer Inflation Expectations at 10:00 am CT. Tonight brings a deluge of Chinese economic data at 9:00 pm CT, including Industrial Production and Fixed Asset Investment.

We still see strong support in E-mini S&P futures at the 4470 area, adjusted to 4467.25-4473.50, to include the low from the Michigan data release. Similarly, we see significant support around the 15,000 area in the E-mini NQ, going back to the June 12th surge. It is nice to identify support, but it means nothing if the bulls cannot separate from it and hold a rally. The overnight rip stalled right at key resistance at 4500.75-4501.50. We must see this level regained, and furthermore a close above major three-star resistance at 4506.50-4509.25 in the E-mini S&P and 15,247-15,280 in the E-mini NQ.

Bias: Neutral

Resistance: 4500.75-4501.50, 4506.50-4509.25, 4517.50-4522.25, 4537.75-4544.75

Pivot: 4493.75

Support: 4480.75, 4467.25-4473.50, 4459, 4444.25-4447

NQ (Sept)

Resistance: 15,174-15,181, 15,247-15,280, 15,325, 15,354-15,370, 15,430-15,443

Pivot: 15,109

Support: 15,095, 15,037-15,063, 14,856-14,870

Crude Oil (September)

Last week’s close: Settled at 83.19, up 0.37 on Friday and 0.37 on the week

We believe the bullish trend to be intact, though price action is slipping into consolidation mode amid negativity around China, correlating to US dollar strength and Chinese yuan weakness. There have been two sell-off attempts in August so far, and each has rallied back significantly. Traders must keep a pulse on support and a trend line off those two dips comes in around 81.50 today and align multiple indicators to create a pocket of support at 81.50-81.87. Price action must regain our Pivot and point of balance at 82.43-82.67 in order to neutralize the early selling. Furthermore, major three-star resistance aligns with Friday’s settlement, which has not traded on today’s session.

Bias: Neutral/Bullish

Resistance: 83.09-83.19, 83.53-83.81, 84.30-84.65

Pivot: 82.43-82.67

Support: 81.50-81.87, 81.03-81.08, 80.39-80.70

Gold (December) / Silver (September)

Gold, last week’s close: Settled at 1946.6, down 2.3 on Friday and 29.5 on the week
Silver, last week’s close: Settled at 22.743, down 0.078 on Friday and 0.973 on the week

Weakness across the Treasury complex, Chinese yuan and Japanese yen have sucked the life from the precious metals complex more than any other asset class. Tonight’s deluge of economic data from China due at 9:00 pm CT will be crucial, as will developing news around Country Garden the beleaguered Chinese property company. The US Dollar Index is higher by nearly 0.5% this morning.

Gold is trading into a critical area of support aligning the June low and the March 10th close at 1938-1939.2. This is where the bulls must show up.

Bias: Neutral/Bullish

Resistance: 1946.6-1948.2, 1953.6-1954.2, 1961.6-1963.5

Pivot: 1944.9

Support: 1938-1939.2, 1930.7-1933.2

Silver (September)

Resistance: 22.89-22.96, 23.12-23.14, 23.28, 23.42-23.49

Support: 22.55-22.72, 22.05-22.34

Learn more about Bill Baruch at Blue Line Futures.