Bulls are certainly firing a lot of bullets to defend the stock market, states Jon Markman, editor of Strategic Advantage.
That process continued on Monday as another firm upgraded a key technology leader. The Nasdaq 100 jumped to 14,937, a gain of 1.7%. It was the biggest gain in August and the first of the last five days.
The flashpoint is Nvidia (NVDA). The Santa Clara, Calif.-based company is ground zero for the artificial intelligence movement. Its semiconductors are the most coveted. Developers use Nvidia software to code the most advanced deep learning modules. And by all accounts, business is booming.
I have written often that a lot of the AI euphoria is misplaced. Although AI is real and important, it is mostly an Nvidia story. Analysts at HBC Securities became the fourth group during the past three sessions to upgrade Nvidia shares. The chip designer will release financial results after the close on Wednesday, and those numbers are certain to be strong.
Bears know this, and that undoubtedly led to some general short covering Monday in technology. Nvidia shares surged 8.5%, to $469.67. The NDX was firmer, yet the benchmark remains well below important resistance at 15,202, its 50-day moving average.
Expect bears to be aggressive defenders of any rally to that level ahead of the Nvidia results. Near-term support for the NDX is 14,557, the low on Friday. The worst-case scenario for bulls is a decline for the NDX to 13,656, the gap created by the May 24 to May 25 rally.