E-mini S&P futures hit rare major four-star support, while Crude Oil stopped on a dime upon expiration. All ahead of today's Fed decision, states Bill Baruch of BlueLineFutures.com.
E-mini S&P (December) / E-mini NQ (December)
S&P, yesterday’s close: Settled at 4490, down 11.50
NQ, yesterday’s close: Settled at 15,375.25, down 39.25
Rare major four-star support in E-mini S&P futures at 4463-4474 became the magnet we spoke of. After a direct test and hold through the European close, price action lifted through the second half of the session. Essentially, this was the post-expiration Monday playbook, to a tee, just a day later. The rebound has held firm into the onset of US hours and ahead of today’s Federal Reserve policy decision at 1:00 pm CT. The first key resistance aligns with Monday’s gap close, but it is a major three-star resistance aligning with Monday’s session high in the E-mini S&P and Friday’s breakdown in the E-mini NQ that could become a pivotal test as the session unfolds.
Bias: Neutral
Resistance: 4501.50-4502.25, 4507.75, 4512.75-4517.50, 4525-4528, 4539.50-4544.75, 4552-4555
Pivot: 4496.25-4498
Support: 4490, 4483.25-4586.75, 4463-4474, 4444.75
NQ (Dec)
Resistance: 15,408-15,439, 15,463-15,468, 15,489-15,508, 15,531-15,552, 15,627, 15,673, 15,709-15,732
Pivot: 15,375
Support: 15,338-13,356, 15,248-15,273, 15,167-15,198, 15,139, 15,006-15,048
Crude Oil (November)
Yesterday’s close: Settled at 90.48, down 0.10
Crude Oil reversed right on cue at 8:00 am CT traditional intraday open after the October contract became untradable. We spoke of exactly his here yesterday, how it is not uncommon to see a directional move into expiration especially in Crude Oil. The reversal not only took out but settled below the critical 90.56 area, which now aligns to create major three-star resistance at 90.31-90.58.
Given the technical undertow, last night’s private API survey was largely a nonfactor, though printed -5.25 mb Crude, +0.732 mb Gasoline, -0.258 mb Distillates, and -2.564 mb at Cushing. Expectations for today’s official EIA report are -2.2 mb Crude Oil, +0.317 mb Gasoline, and +0.217 mb Distillates.
Bias: Neutral/Bullish
Resistance: 89.91-90.00, 90.31-90.58, 91.26-91.27, 91.55-91.86, 92.43-92.64, 93.62-93.74
Pivot: 90.56
Support: 88.65-88.85, 87.74-87.88, 87.25-87.49, 86.58-86.66
Gold (December) / Silver (December)
Gold, yesterday’s close: Settled 1953.7, up 0.3
Silver, yesterday’s close: Settled at 23.456, down 0.042
It is Fed day, so be prepared for added volatility and dependence on the rate, currency, and risk environment as you trade Gold, Silver, Copper, and Platinum from 1:00 pm CT, through close. The rebound yesterday morning was a pretty standard snapback from oversold conditions, as Gold, but Silver more so, needed to find a point of balance before today’s announcement. Major three-star resistance in Silver at 23.65-23.76 held perfectly, whereas Gold traded above its major three-star resistance at 1953.4-1954.8, though it did not close above. As today unfolds, it will be critical to how this overhead resistance is accepted in the case of a retest.
Bias: Neutral/Bullish
Resistance: 1957.7-1958.9, 1966.4-1971.1, 1977.1, 1980.2-1984.7
Pivot: 1953.4-1954.8
Support: 1948.6-1949.5, 1943.8, 1937.2-1938.4, 1931-1932.8, 1921.7-1926, 1913.6-1916.2
Silver (December)
Resistance: 23.58, 23.65-23.76, 23.99
Pivot: 23.47
Support: 23.23-23.30, 22.99-23.08, 22.85, 22.55-22.72, 22.30
Learn more about Bill Baruch at Blue Line Futures.
