E-mini S&P and E-mini NQ futures are retreating to support this morning, will it hold? Gold and Silver are trying to break out, but there is reason to be cautious, states Bill Baruch of BlueLineFutures.com.

E-mini S&P (December) / E-mini NQ (December)

S&P, yesterday’s close: Settled at 4561.00, down 7.25

NQ, yesterday’s close: Settled at 16,008.75, down 12.25

Although the trend remains Bullish, the E-mini S&P dipped below major three-star support this morning. One outcome would be a failure to regain this level within the first hour of trade, which could encourage a consolidation lower to 4524.50-4527.50. The other outcome is a steady trade above 4551.25-4555 through the first hour, encouraging additional buyers to step in. In the case of the latter, price action must clear yesterday’s high to open the door to higher prices. As for the E-mini NQ, we see a similar path of support, however, to the upside it must close out above rare major four-star support at 16,159-16,173 to lay the groundwork for the next leg higher.

Bias: Neutral/Bullish

Resistance: 4561-4563, 4567.25-4570, 4575.50-4580.50, 4597.50, 4653

Pivot: 4551.25-4555

Support: 4537.75-4541.25, 4524.50-4527.50, 4512.75-4514.25, 4498-4503, 4490.25, 4462.25-4470.25, 4447, 4425.25-4430.50, 4419.25-4420.25, 4407.25-4409.50

NQ (Dec)

Resistance: 16,047-16,053, 16,089-16,117, 16,159-16,173, 16,265-16,275

Pivot: 16,000

Support: 15,937-15,942, 15,894-15,917, 15,825-15,832, 15,790, 15,719-15,732, 15,588-15,612, 15,547-15,552, 15,453-15,468

Crude Oil (January)

Yesterday’s close: Settled at 74.86, down 0.68

Crude Oil futures have struggled to extend gains with strong resistance into $77 withstanding waves of buying. Although this has led to a streak of lower highs, there has also been a constructive streak of higher lows. We all know what this means, a move is coming. Given the two most significant volume days over the last week have been associated with swing bottoms, we tend to think price action is attempting to round out a bottom. However, Crude Oil must chew through the $77 mark and major three-star resistance at 77.80-78.19 before closing above major three-star resistance at 79.20-79.65 and ultimately neutralizing the November 7th breakdown.

Bias: Neutral/Bullish

Resistance: 76.01-76.28, 76.85-77.12, 77.80-78.19, 78.39-78.46, 79.20-79.65, 80.10-80.23

Pivot: 75.30

Support: 74.73, 73.66-74.05, 72.91-73.09, 72.31-72.47, 70.00-70.69

Gold (February) / Silver (March)

Gold, yesterday’s close: Settled at 2012.4, up 9.4

Silver, yesterday’s close: Settled at 25.038, up 0.346

Options on Gold and Silver futures for December expired yesterday and this theoretically could lift the ceiling and allow for higher prices given the difficulties over the last month and a half of December Gold had from $2000-2020. While Gold is making a new swing high this morning, we will look for confirmation from Silver which led the few trading sessions. It would be concerning if Silver could not take out yesterday’s swing high. Furthermore, the December futures roll off the board through tomorrow, and like every expiration date this year, due to higher interest rates and cost to carry, there is approximately a $20 spread from December to the now front month February Gold contract and a 0.35 spread from the December to now front month Silver contract. The problem is this higher roll spread has seemingly deterred momentum buying into month-end spread rolls. Therefore, while encouraging to see higher prices, we are taking it with a grain of salt and using such to monetize the move as we look to the end of the week data dump (Nonfarm Payrolls).

Bias: Bullish/Neutral

Resistance: 2047-2052.9, 2057.5-2060, 2067-2070, 2097.1

Pivot: 2035

Support: 2026.5-2029.7, 2023.3-2023.9, 2013.2-2015.5, 2000.4

Silver (December)

Resistance: 25.23-25.29, 25.50-25.57, 25.70-25.78, 26.09-26.10

Pivot: 25.05

Support: 24.89, 24.69-24.72, 24.50-24.56, 23.96-24.03, 2343-23.46

Learn more about Bill Baruch at Blue Line Futures.