The market is at a pivotal point consolidating near all the major technical support areas, notes trading specialist Steve Reitmeister, editor of Reitmeister Total Return.
The more investors feel confident about the economic outlook the more likely stocks go higher. However, whispers are growing louder about the negative effects of higher inflation and higher rates. In particular the concept of an inverted yield curve that has preceded almost every bear market in recent history.
On top of that you have a likely long term shift to higher energy prices. Even if the Russia/Ukraine war ended tomorrow, many in Europe would still want to look for energy sources outside of Russia given the instability there.
This is going to cause a long term shift to increase energy development in other parts of the world — but also the high price of oil/gas, along with green efforts will increase the attractiveness of clean energy. This has me making the following trades that are a touch more aligned with the new economic landscape.
We are buying iShares Global Clean Energy ETF (ICLN) and VanEck Oil Services ETF (OIH). As time rolls, on I have little doubt that the virtue of overweighting these energy plays will prove very beneficial.
The reason to continue to ride that momentum is that this is likely a long term cycle of growth for the group as outlined in a recent Goldman Sachs piece as the world disconnects from Russian energy. This means a build-up in other oil capacity benefiting the services space for years to come.
These trends have already lit a fire under the oil services space leading to impressive year-to-date return for VanEck Oil Services. For as much as OIH has risen this year it is still half its peak level from early 2018. So that gives a sense of the upside opportunity in a world with higher energy prices.
This same trend will benefit alternative energy as the longer that energy prices stay elevated...the more attractive the ROI to go the alternative energy route. And the companies inside iShares Global Clean Energy are the ones most likely to benefit.
Investors may ask why we are going the ETF route instead of picking individual stocks? My response is that these are both very diversified fields and I don't want the risk in just picking individual stocks in any group and guess wrong. I think it is just better playing the field — which points to ETFs as the best way to ride the trend.
