We made the right call skipping Birkenstock Holding (BIRK) on opening day. For that matter, we’ve dodged a lot of big bullets lately by refusing to jump into the deals the underwriters have been halfheartedly and haphazardly serving up, opting instead to go back for a few of the most promising orphaned stocks Wall Street left for dead, counsels Hilary Kramer, editor of IPO Edge.
It’s not rocket science. When the average IPO so far this month has crashed 31% since its starting price, you’re better off keeping your powder dry until the banks finally get their act together enough to give their companies some support. BIRK was one of the biggest deals in months and the biggest consortium of financial institutions on the planet couldn’t read the room well enough to know that investors wouldn’t rush to buy it at $46.
And this is no accidental glitch. A ghastly 87% of all stocks that have gone public in the last three months have now broken, which means people who bought the initial trade are underwater...sometimes deep underwater, down 50%-95% in a matter of weeks.
I don’t blame the companies. The underwriters just aren’t providing strong enough support to overcome the market’s current skittishness in the face of rising interest rates. Their job revolves around educating investors about the stocks they package for us and then making sure the shares start out priced at a level that Wall Street can not only support but embrace.
They’re failing to do that job. They’ll figure it out soon. But until the numbers change convincingly for the better, we’re better off skipping the opening day...on big blue-ribbon deals and small obscure offerings alike.
Just look at Mobileye Global (MBLY). Almost a year ago, it started on a weak note. We bought the dip. Now our year is almost over and we’re “only” up 40% on the position. That’s only disappointing because I really thought this stock had what it took to clear $50 and give us a home run.
However, in the grand scheme of things, a 40% win is better than average, given the fact that we only have about a year to work with on any given stock. If we cashed MBLY tomorrow, we’d walk away with a little less than 4X our average historical profit and boost our long-term performance by a percentage point or two.
We’ve made triple on this stock what we would’ve earned on the S&P 500 over the same period of time. It’s only a disappointment because we were hungry for more.
