Here, we add a variety of energy ideas. John Buckingham looks at a driller, Jamie Dlugosch looks at drilling equipment, Mark Skousen eyes a trio of oil favorites, Janet Brown "upgrades" some energy funds, while Bernie Schaeffer offers an oil "strangle."
"Our Buckingham Portfolio member
Transocean (RIG
"We've seen a fantastic rally in the commodity market
over the last 18 months; stocks in the sector have risen in line with the
rise in oil prices," says Jamie Dlugosch, editor of The Rational
Investor. "At the same time,
profits have grown substantially. As a result, prices in the sector remain
attractive. It was the same case with homebuilders in 2002. Buyers, in the face
of bubble fears, prospered. The same could happen with oil stocks today. I would
not suggest that history will definitely repeat itself here, but the odds appear
to be in our favor to see fantastic gains in the sector. We will add shares of
Maverick Tube (MVK NYSE) to our portfolio. This
maker of welded tubular steel products for the energy and industrial market is
poised to capitalize on the rich prices of oil. Shares trade for a single-digit
earnings multiple and growth prospects are tremendous. We would add shares of
MVK at any price below $35, and our target is $70. We feel the upward bias in
oil prices should last longer than most expect."
"The primary goal of our Upgrader system
is to buy highly ranked funds, hold them as they outperform their peers
and Upgrade when performance falters," notes Janet Brown, whose
No-Load FundX
has developed one of the top
long-term records among newsletters. "Our portfolio is now overweight in the energy
sector. Upgrading gains for the past 12 months are more than double the broad
market, with the gains concentrated in such areas as energy and natural
resources. In our Group 1, which represents speculative funds, over half of the
funds that are at the top of our listing (and thus are rated as buys) fall in
these sectors:
"I believe oil is in a long-term bull market
because of a lack of refineries and failure to discover new supplies," says
Mark Skousen, editor of Forecasts &
Strategies. "As global demand
rises, expect oil prices to reach new highs soon. ExxonMobil (XOM NYSE) remains our favorite big oil company. Exxon
is now the largest company in the world in terms of market cap. With its vast
resources in all stages of oil production and consumption, it is bound to lead
the world in energy. More recently, we recommended Pengrowth Energy (PGH NYSE), a highly profitable Canadian oil & gas
trust. It just paid out another monthly dividend of 19 cents, and paid $2.14
last year, for a yield of 9.7%. In its most recent first quarter 2005, cash
distributions rose 38% to $128 million, representing 84% payout ratio. Its goal
is to reduce the cash payout ratio and increase its cash flow. Let's set a
protective stop at $17 a share. US Global Resources Fund (PSPFX ) invests in oil & gas,
precious metals, and other commodity companies around the world. The fund is
benefiting from the sharp rise in commodity prices. Lipper ranks this fund tops
in the global commodity fund arena. With oil & gas and other commodities
making a comeback, I expect US Global to perform well in
2005."
"Our resource companies are all looking good," says
Adrian Day . "With demand strong, and refining capacity
tight, we suspect price corrections will tend to be shallow and short. So
if you are underinvested in energy stocks, don't be too cautious in stepping up
to the plate. Devon Energy (DVN NYSE) had a relatively weak first quarter, with
production down and received prices less than expected (because of weak
differentials for its heavy crude). In addition, one of its 'big potential'
plays offshore Nigeria was unsuccessful. But despite the disappointments, there
is optimism on these fronts. The company has numerous other big potential
projects. Moreover, one its key assets, the Barnett Shale, around Forth Worth,
is expanding dramatically. And there was good
news on the financial front: Devon sold several non-core assets, as it said it
would, raising $2.3 billion, a good price, which it used to redeem some maturing
and callable debt, and for share repurchases. Overall, the stock is still
inexpensive, with strong potential. Devon continues to be a company with
strong producing assets, mostly in the US, with numerous high-potential exploration projects around the world, a strong balance sheet,
and top management. We have an almost 100% return from our original
investment, but it remains one of our favorites.
For
sophisticated traders, Bernie Schaeffer offers a "strangle," which is an
options play that bets on a relatively significant move-either
up or down-
in
a particular stock. Here, he suggests such a strategy for Marathon
Oil (MRO NYSE). He explains, "Oil prices continue to soar, with
the August futures contract recently touching a record high. This price surge
helped carry oil-related stocks such as MRO to all-time highs. In fact, MRO
has rallied steadily along its ten-month moving average since March 2003. The stock
is also enjoying the steadfast support of its ascending ten-day trendline.
Yet Wall Street remains skeptical of the shares, as ten of the 15 analysts following
the firm rate it a "hold" or worse. Any upgrades from this hesitant group could
add some more lift to MRO. On the other hand, a short-interest ratio of less
than two limits the chance of a short squeeze. And there's ten points of potential
downside before support from the ten-month moving average kicks in. For those who
fully understand the strategy of a strangle, we would suggest buying the
October 55 call (.MROJK) and October 50 put (.MROVJ)."